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The Effects of War Risk on U.S. Financial Markets

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  • Roberto Rigobon
  • Brian Sack

Abstract

This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor' accounted for a considerable portion of the variance of these financial variables over the ten weeks leading up to the onset of war with Iraq.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9609.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9609

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  1. Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Steven J. Davis & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "War in Iraq versus Containment," NBER Working Papers 12092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
  5. Siklos, Pierre L. & Bohl, Martin T. & Werner, Thomas, 2003. "Did the Bundesbank React to Stock Price Movements?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Amihud, Yakov & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Political news and stock prices: The case of Saddam Hussein contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
  7. Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "The Curse of Non-Investment Grade Countries," NBER Working Papers 8636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of a War in Iraq," NBER Working Papers 9361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1387, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
  11. Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  12. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May.
  13. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Elena Corallo, 2005. "The effect of the war risk: a comparison of the consequences of the two Iraq wars on some financial variables," LIUC Papers in Economics 171, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
  2. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2005. "The economic effects of violent conflict: evidence from asset market reactions," Working Papers 2005-066, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Daniel Waldenström & Bruno S. Frey, 2007. "Did Nordic Countries Recognize the Gathering Storm of World War II? Evidence from the Bond Markets," IEW - Working Papers 336, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  4. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
  5. Fratzscher, Marcel & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro," Working Paper Series 1064, European Central Bank.
  6. François-Xavier Delaloye & Michel Habib & Alexandre Ziegler, 2012. "Swiss banking secrecy: the stock market evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 143-176, March.
  7. Elena Corallo, 2007. "The effect of the war risk: a comparison of the consequences of the two Iraq wars," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 371-382, September.
  8. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
  9. Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza & Indriawan, Ivan, 2012. "Political crises and the stock market integration of emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 644-653.

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