Decoupling and the Spillover Effects of the US Financial Crisis: Evidence from the BRIC Markets
AbstractEven though the global contagion effects of the financial crisis have been well documented, the transmission mechanism as well as the nature of the volatility spillovers among the US, EU and the BRIC markets has not been systematically investigated. To examine the dynamic linear and nonlinear causal linkages a stepwise filtering methodology is introduced, for which vector autoregressions and various multivariate GARCH representations are adopted. The sample covers the after-Euro period and includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone debt crisis. The empirical results show that the BRICs have become more internationally integrated after the US financial crisis and contagion is further substantiated. Moreover, no consistent evidence in support of the “decoupling” view is found. Some nonlinear causal links persist after filtering during the examined period. This indicates that nonlinear causality can, to a large extent, be explained by simple volatility effects, although tail dependency and higher-moments may be significant factors of the remaining interdependences.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 21_13.
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
stock markets; nonlinear causality; filtering; GJR-GARCH; multivariate GARCH models; spillovers;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-05-22 (All new papers)
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