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Return and Volatility Spillovers among the East Asian Equity Markets

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  • Kamil Yilmaz

    ()
    (Koc University)

Abstract

This article examines the extent of contagion and interdependence across the East Asian equity markets since early 1990s and compares the ongoing crisis with earlier episodes. Using the forecast error variance decomposition from a vector autoregression, we derive return and volatility spillover indices over the rolling sub-sample windows. We show that there is substantial difference between the behavior of the East Asian return and volatility spillover indices over time. While the return spillover index reveals increased integration among the East Asian equity markets, the volatility spillover index experiences significant bursts during major market crises, including the East Asian crisis. The fact that both return and volatility spillover indices reached their respective peaks during the current global financial crisis attests to the severity of the current episode.

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File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_0907.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 0907.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:0907

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Keywords: Stock returns; Volatility; Spillovers; Vector autoregression; Variance decomposition;

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References

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  1. Baur, Dirk G. & Fry, Renée A., 2009. "Multivariate contagion and interdependence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 353-366, September.
  2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2007. "Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2001. "Volatility Dependence and Contagion in Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 8506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Michael P. Dooley & Michael M. Hutchison, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. Subprime Crisis to Emerging Markets: Evidence on the Decoupling-Recoupling Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 15120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nathaniel Frank & Heiko Hesse, 2009. "Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets during the Global Financial Crisis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 507-521, December.
  6. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  8. Baur, Dirk, 2003. "Testing for contagion--mean and volatility contagion," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 405-422, December.
  9. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2010. "Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1001, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Mar 2010.
  10. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zhou, Xiangyi & Zhang, Weijin & Zhang, Jie, 2012. "Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 247-270.
  2. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Shiab, Mohammad Al, 2013. "Directional spillovers from the U.S. and the Saudi market to equities in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 224-242.
  3. Saha, Malayendu & Bhunia, Amalendu, 2012. "How far India has gone down the road towards financial integration with US since subprime crisis? An Econometric Analysis," MPRA Paper 38731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers from the US to Australia and China across the GFC," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 2012-30, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  5. A. Maghyereh & B. Awartani, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers between Dubai financial market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange in the UAE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 837-848, May.
  6. Marcel Aloy & Gilles de Truchis & Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2014. "Shift-Volatility Transmission in East Asian Equity Markets," AMSE Working Papers 1402, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Mar 2014.
  7. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Jean Louis, Rosmy, 2013. "Sectoral equity returns and portfolio diversification opportunities across the GCC region," MPRA Paper 43687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Sugimoto, Kimiko & Matsuki, Takashi & Yoshida, Yushi, 2013. "The global financial crisis: An analysis of the spillover effects on African stock markets," MPRA Paper 50473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Hatice Ozer Balli & Faruk Balli & Rosmy Jean Louis, 2013. "Time-Varying Spillover Effects on Sectoral Equity Returns," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 67-91, 03.
  10. Jozef Barunik & Evzen Kocenda & Lukas Vacha, 2013. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers: Revisiting the Diebold-Yilmaz (2009) spillover index with realized semivariance," Papers 1308.1221, arXiv.org.
  11. Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "The relationship between Asian equity and commodity futures markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 67-75.
  12. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
  13. Hsien-Yi Lee, 2012. "Contagion in International Stock Markets during the Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(1), pages 41-53.
  14. Stelios D. Bekiros, 2013. "Decoupling and the Spillover Effects of the US Financial Crisis: Evidence from the BRIC Markets," Working Paper Series 21_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

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