Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models
AbstractTransportation accounts for a substantial share of CO2 emissions, and decarbonizing transport will be necessary to limit global warming to below 2°C. Due to persistent reliance on fossil fuels, it is posited that transport is more difficult to decarbonize than other sectors. We test this hypothesis by comparing long-term transport energy demand and emission projections for China, USA and the World from five large-scale energy-economy models with respect to three climate policies. We systematically analyze mitigation levers along the chain of causality from mobility to emissions, and discuss structural differences between mitigation in transport and non-transport sectors. We can confirm the hypothesis that transport is difficult to decarbonize with purely monetary signals when looking at the period before 2070. In the long run, however, the three global models achieve deep transport emission reductions by >90% through the use of advanced vehicle technologies and carbon-free primary energy; especially biomass with CCS plays a crucial role. Compared to the global models, the two partial-equilibrium models are relatively inflexible in their reaction to climate policies. Across all models, transportation mitigation lags behind non-transport mitigation by 10-30 years. The extent to which earlier mitigation is possible strongly depends on implemented technologies and model structure.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2013.08.
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Transportation Scenarios; Carbon Emission Mitigation; Integrated Assessment; Energy-Economy Modeling; Advanced Light Duty Vehicles; Demand Reduction;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
- R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2013-03-16 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2013-03-16 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-TRE-2013-03-16 (Transport Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schafer, Andreas & Jacoby, Henry D., 2006. "Vehicle technology under CO2 constraint: a general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 975-985, June.
- Azar, Christian & Lindgren, Kristian & Andersson, Bjorn A., 2003. "Global energy scenarios meeting stringent CO2 constraints--cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 961-976, August.
- Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S251-S260.
- Meyer, I. & Leimbach, M. & Jaeger, C.C., 2007. "International passenger transport and climate change: A sector analysis in car demand and associated CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6332-6345, December.
- Kyle, Page & Kim, Son H., 2011. "Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3012-3024, May.
- Gunnar Luderer & Valentina Bosetti & Michael Jakob & Marian Leimbach & Jan Steckel & Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 9-37, September.
- Horne, Matt & Jaccard, Mark & Tiedemann, Ken, 2005. "Improving behavioral realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 59-77, January.
- Bosetti, Valentina & Longden, Thomas, 2013.
"Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles,"
Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 209-219.
- Valentina Bosetti & Thomas Longden, 2012. "Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles," Working Papers 2012.11, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Anable, Jillian & Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Eyre, Nick, 2012. "Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 125-138.
- Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Anable, Jillian, 2012. "The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-124.
- Valentina Bosetti & Thomas Longden, 2012.
"Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles,"
2012.11, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Bosetti, Valentina & Longden, Thomas, 2013. "Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 209-219.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.