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Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050

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  • Bristow, Abigail L.
  • Tight, Miles
  • Pridmore, Alison
  • May, Anthony D.

Abstract

The key aim of this paper is to examine strategic pathways to low carbon personal transport in Britain and to compare these with the current trajectory of transport policy. A 2050 baseline was established using trend information, forecasts and best evidence from the literature on response to policy intervention. A range of strategies are tested including: technological development, pricing, public transport and soft measures. We conclude that even dramatic technological advance cannot meet the more stringent targets for carbon reduction in the absence of considerable behavioural change. The most promising combinations of measures involve clear price signals to encourage both a reduction in the use of motorised transport and the development and purchase of more efficient vehicles; decarbonisation of public transport and facilitating measures to enhance access whilst reducing the need for motorised travel.

Suggested Citation

  • Bristow, Abigail L. & Tight, Miles & Pridmore, Alison & May, Anthony D., 2008. "Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3427-3435, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:9:p:3427-3435
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    2. Meiting Tu & Ye Li & Lei Bao & Yuao Wei & Olivier Orfila & Wenxiang Li & Dominique Gruyer, 2019. "Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Decomposition of CO 2 Emissions from Urban Passenger Transport: An Empirical Study of Global Cities from 1960–2001," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-16, August.
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    8. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Longden, Thomas & Chen, Wenying & Fu, Sha & Kriegler, Elmar & Kyle, Page & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-108.
    9. Hickman, Robin & Saxena, Sharad & Banister, David & Ashiru, Olu, 2012. "Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 560-575.
    10. Perez-Prada, Fiamma & Monzon, Andres, 2017. "Ex-post environmental and traffic assessment of a speed reduction strategy in Madrid's inner ring-road," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 256-268.
    11. Yang Zhou & Caiyun Qian & Han Xiao & Jiachen Xin & Zixiong Wei & Qing Feng, 2019. "Coupling Research on Land Use and Travel Behaviors Along the Tram Based on Accessibility Measurement—Taking Nanjing Chilin Tram Line 1 as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-33, April.
    12. Bishop, Justin D.K. & Martin, Niall P.D. & Boies, Adam M., 2016. "Quantifying the role of vehicle size, powertrain technology, activity and consumer behaviour on new UK passenger vehicle fleet energy use and emissions under different policy objectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 196-212.
    13. Marletto, Gerardo, 2014. "Car and the city: Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 164-178.
    14. Marletto, Gerardo, 2011. "Structure, agency and change in the car regime. A review of the literature," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 47, pages 71-88.
    15. Angelo Antoci & Simone Borghesi & Gerardo Marletto, 2012. "To drive or not to drive? A simple evolutionary model," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2012(2), pages 31-47.
    16. Cui, Qiang & Li, Ye, 2015. "An empirical study on the influencing factors of transportation carbon efficiency: Evidences from fifteen countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 209-217.
    17. Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Christian Ambrosini & Jean-Louis Routhier, 2010. "CO2 reduction for urban goods movement: is it possible to reach the Factor 4 by 2050?," Post-Print halshs-00835930, HAL.
    18. C. Sillig & G. Marletto, 2022. "Global influence and national diversity in socio-technical transitions: a sectoral taxonomy," Working Paper CRENoS 202203, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    19. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    20. Fan, Ailong & Xiong, Yuqi & Yang, Liu & Zhang, Haiying & He, Yapeng, 2023. "Carbon footprint model and low–carbon pathway of inland shipping based on micro–macro analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    21. Pengfei Zhao & Lingxiang Wei & Dong Pan & Jincheng Yang & Yuchuan Ji, 2023. "Analysis of Key Factors Affecting Low-Carbon Travel Behaviors of Urban Residents in Developing Countries: A Case Study in Zhenjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    22. Gang Cheng & Shuzhi Zhao & Di Huang, 2018. "Understanding the Effects of Improving Transportation on Pilgrim Travel Behavior: Evidence from the Lhasa, Tibet, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, October.

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