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Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050

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  • Bristow, Abigail L.
  • Tight, Miles
  • Pridmore, Alison
  • May, Anthony D.
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    Abstract

    The key aim of this paper is to examine strategic pathways to low carbon personal transport in Britain and to compare these with the current trajectory of transport policy. A 2050 baseline was established using trend information, forecasts and best evidence from the literature on response to policy intervention. A range of strategies are tested including: technological development, pricing, public transport and soft measures. We conclude that even dramatic technological advance cannot meet the more stringent targets for carbon reduction in the absence of considerable behavioural change. The most promising combinations of measures involve clear price signals to encourage both a reduction in the use of motorised transport and the development and purchase of more efficient vehicles; decarbonisation of public transport and facilitating measures to enhance access whilst reducing the need for motorised travel.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 9 (September)
    Pages: 3427-3435

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:9:p:3427-3435

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2006. "On the baseline evolution of automobile fuel economy in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1773-1785, September.
    2. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Kawase, Reina & Matsuoka, Yuzuru & Fujino, Junichi, 2006. "Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission in long-term climate stabilization scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2113-2122, October.
    4. Tight, M.R. & Bristow, A.L. & Pridmore, A. & May, A.D., 2005. "What is a sustainable level of CO2 emissions from transport activity in the UK in 2050?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 235-244, May.
    5. Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2006. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," Working Papers 050603, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    6. Glaister, Stephen & Graham, Daniel J., 2005. "An evaluation of national road user charging in England," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(7-9), pages 632-650.
    7. Hickman, Robin & Banister, David, 2007. "Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 377-387, September.
    8. Sir Nicholas Stern, 2006. "What is the Economics of Climate Change?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, April.
    9. Kwon, Tae-Hyeong, 2005. "A scenario analysis of CO2 emission trends from car travel: Great Britain 2000-2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 175-184, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Marletto, Gerardo, 2011. "Structure, agency and change in the car regime. A review of the literature," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 47, pages 71-88.
    2. Angelo Antoci & Simone Borghesi & Gerardo Marletto, 2012. "To drive or not to drive? A simple evolutionary model," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2012(2), pages 31-47.
    3. Robert Pietzcker & Thomas Longden & Wenying Chen & Sha Fu & Elmar Kriegler & Page Kyle & Gunnar Luderer, 2013. "Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models," Working Papers 2013.08, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Christian Ambrosini & Jean-Louis Routhier, 2010. "CO2 reduction for urban goods movement: is it possible to reach the Factor 4 by 2050?," Post-Print halshs-00835930, HAL.
    5. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Hickman, Robin & Saxena, Sharad & Banister, David & Ashiru, Olu, 2012. "Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 560-575.
    7. Schwanen, Tim & Banister, David & Anable, Jillian, 2011. "Scientific research about climate change mitigation in transport: A critical review," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 993-1006.

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