IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v82y2015icp233-248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Yin, Xiang
  • Chen, Wenying
  • Eom, Jiyong
  • Clarke, Leon E.
  • Kim, Son H.
  • Patel, Pralit L.
  • Yu, Sha
  • Kyle, G. Page

Abstract

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E. & Kim, Son H. & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G. Page, 2015. "China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 233-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:233-248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.03.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515001275
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.03.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacques Delsalle, 2002. "The effects of fuel price changes on the transport sector and its emissions - simulations with TREMOVE," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 172, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Longden, Thomas & Chen, Wenying & Fu, Sha & Kriegler, Elmar & Kyle, Page & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-108.
    3. Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Kriegler, Elmar & Haller, Markus & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "Asia's role in mitigating climate change: A technology and sector specific analysis with ReMIND-R," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 378-390.
    4. Chen, Wenying & Li, Hualin & Wu, Zongxin, 2010. "Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7106-7120, November.
    5. Yan, Xiaoyu & Crookes, Roy J., 2009. "Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 658-668, February.
    6. Girod, Bastien & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Deetman, Sebastiaan, 2012. "Global travel within the 2°C climate target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 152-166.
    7. Koljonen, Tiina & Lehtilä, Antti, 2012. "The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 410-420.
    8. Jae Edmonds & Marshall Wise & Hugh Pitcher & Richard Richels & Tom Wigley & Chris Maccracken, 1997. "An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 311-339, December.
    9. Kyle, Page & Kim, Son H., 2011. "Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3012-3024, May.
    10. Ong, H.C. & Mahlia, T.M.I. & Masjuki, H.H., 2011. "A review on emissions and mitigation strategies for road transport in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3516-3522.
    11. Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Anable, Jillian, 2012. "The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-124.
    12. Lo, Kevin, 2014. "A critical review of China's rapidly developing renewable energy and energy efficiency policies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 508-516.
    13. Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon & Kim, Son H. & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2012. "China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 405-419.
    14. Cuenot, Francois & Fulton, Lew & Staub, John, 2012. "The prospect for modal shifts in passenger transport worldwide and impacts on energy use and CO2," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 98-106.
    15. Son H. Kim, Jae Edmonds, Josh Lurz, Steven J. Smith, and Marshall Wise, 2006. "The objECTS Framework for integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 63-92.
    16. Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Khanna, Nina Zheng & Ke, Jing & McNeil, Michael & Levine, Mark, 2013. "China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 51-62.
    17. Chen, Wenying, 2005. "The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 885-896, May.
    18. Zhang, Shuwei & Jiang, Kejun & Liu, Deshun, 2007. "Passenger transport modal split based on budgets and implication for energy consumption: Approach and application in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4434-4443, September.
    19. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    20. Sperling, Daniel & Lin, Zhenhong & Hamilton, Peter, 2005. "Rural vehicles in China: appropriate policy for appropriate technology," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 105-119, March.
    21. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 17-29.
    22. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2012. "Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 244-251.
    23. Chen, Wenying & Wu, Zongxin & He, Jiankun & Gao, Pengfei & Xu, Shaofeng, 2007. "Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 59-72.
    24. Eom, Jiyong & Schipper, Lee & Thompson, Lou, 2012. "We keep on truckin': Trends in freight energy use and carbon emissions in 11 IEA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 327-341.
    25. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael & Zhang, Xiliang & He, Kebin & Gong, Huiming & Jiang, Kejun & Jin, Yuefu & Shi, Yaodong & Yu, Xin, 2012. "Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 37-48.
    26. Sperling, Dan & Lin, Zhenhong & Hamilton, Peter, 2005. "Rural Vehicles in China: Appropriate Policy for Appropriate Technology," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6gj0j794, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    27. Bastien Girod & Detlef Vuuren & Maria Grahn & Alban Kitous & Son Kim & Page Kyle, 2013. "Climate impact of transportation A model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 595-608, June.
    28. Huo, Hong & He, Kebin & Wang, Michael & Yao, Zhiliang, 2012. "Vehicle technologies, fuel-economy policies, and fuel-consumption rates of Chinese vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 30-36.
    29. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6520-6528.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pan, Xunzhang & Wang, Hailin & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2018. "Decarbonization of China's transportation sector: In light of national mitigation toward the Paris Agreement goals," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 853-864.
    2. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Longden, Thomas & Chen, Wenying & Fu, Sha & Kriegler, Elmar & Kyle, Page & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-108.
    3. Li, Danyang & Chen, Wenying, 2019. "TIMES modeling of the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles under the worldwide prohibition of liquid vehicle sales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    4. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.
    5. Zhang, Hongjun & Chen, Wenying & Huang, Weilong, 2016. "TIMES modelling of transport sector in China and USA: Comparisons from a decarbonization perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1505-1514.
    6. Zeng, Yuan & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe & Wang, Yi & Xu, Baoguang, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles in Chinese cities and the implication for China’s mitigation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1016-1025.
    7. Zheng, Bo & Zhang, Qiang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens & Huo, Hong & Guan, Dabo & Klimont, Zbigniew & Peters, Glen P. & He, Kebin, 2015. "How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 230-240.
    8. Gambhir, Ajay & Tse, Lawrence K.C. & Tong, Danlu & Martinez-Botas, Ricardo, 2015. "Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 905-917.
    9. Bosetti, Valentina & Longden, Thomas, 2013. "Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 209-219.
    10. Wang, Hailin & Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang, 2017. "Mode, technology, energy consumption, and resulting CO2 emissions in China's transport sector up to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 719-733.
    11. Zhang, Runsen & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Hanaoka, Tatsuya, 2018. "Contribution of the transport sector to climate change mitigation: Insights from a global passenger transport model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 76-88.
    12. Yang, Yuan & Wang, Can & Liu, Wenling & Zhou, Peng, 2017. "Microsimulation of low carbon urban transport policies in Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 561-572.
    13. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2017. "The impact of energy policies in scenarios on GHG emission reduction in passenger car mobility in the EU-15," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1088-1096.
    14. Liu, Yang & Wang, Yu & Huo, Hong, 2013. "Temporal and spatial variations in on-road energy use and CO2 emissions in China, 1978–2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 544-550.
    15. Hofmann, Jana & Guan, Dabo & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos & Huo, Hong, 2016. "Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 995-1003.
    16. Bahn, Olivier & Marcy, Mathilde & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2013. "Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 593-606.
    17. Johansson, Daniel J. A. & Lucas, Paul L. & Weitzel, Matthias & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Bazaz, A. B. & Chen, Wenying & den Elzen, Michel G. J. & Ghosh, Joydeep & Grahn, Maria & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Peterson, S, 2012. "Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime," Kiel Working Papers 1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Paladugula, Anantha Lakshmi & Kholod, Nazar & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Ghosh, Probal Pratap & Pal, Sarbojit & Clarke, Leon & Evans, Meredydd & Kyle, Page & Koti, Poonam Nagar & Parikh, Kirit & Qamar, Sha, 2018. "A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 10-18.
    19. Iñigo Capellán-Pérez & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Alberto Ansuategi & Kishore Dhavala & Pralit Patel & Anil Markandya, 2014. "New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model," Working Papers 2014-04, BC3.
    20. Tang, Bao-Jun & Li, Xiao-Yi & Yu, Biying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2019. "Sustainable development pathway for intercity passenger transport: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:233-248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.