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Global travel within the 2°C climate target

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  • Girod, Bastien
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • Deetman, Sebastiaan

Abstract

Long-term scenarios generally project a steep increase in global travel demand, leading to an rapid rise in CO2 emissions. Major driving forces are the increasing car use in developing countries and the global growth in air travel. Meeting the 2°C climate target, however, requires a deep cut in CO2 emissions. In this paper, we explore how extensive emission reductions may be achieved, using a newly developed travel model. This bottom-up model covers 26 world regions, 7 travel modes and different vehicle types. In the experiments, we applied a carbon tax and looked into the model’s responses in terms of overall travel demand, modal split shifts, and changes in technology and fuel choice. We introduce two main scenarios in which biofuels are assumed to be carbon neutral (not subject to taxation, scenario A) or to lead to some greenhouse gas emissions (and therefore subject to taxation, scenario B). This leads to very different outcomes. Scenario A achieves emission reductions mostly through changes in fuel use. In Scenario B efficiency improvement and model split changes also play a major role. In both scenarios total travel volume is affected only marginally.

Suggested Citation

  • Girod, Bastien & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Deetman, Sebastiaan, 2012. "Global travel within the 2°C climate target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 152-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:45:y:2012:i:c:p:152-166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.008
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    2. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E. & Kim, Son H. & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G. Page, 2015. "China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 233-248.
    3. Daly, Hannah E. & Ramea, Kalai & Chiodi, Alessandro & Yeh, Sonia & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Incorporating travel behaviour and travel time into TIMES energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 429-439.
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    5. Luis Moisés Peña-Lévano & Farzad Taheripour & Wallace E. Tyner, 2019. "Climate Change Interactions with Agriculture, Forestry Sequestration, and Food Security," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 653-675, October.
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    7. Nykvist, Björn & Sprei, Frances & Nilsson, Måns, 2019. "Assessing the progress toward lower priced long range battery electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 144-155.
    8. Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Reaching carbon neutral transport sector in Denmark – Evidence from the incorporation of modal shift into the TIMES energy system modeling framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 571-583.
    9. O. Y. Edelenbosch & A. F. Hof & B. Nykvist & B. Girod & D. P. Vuuren, 2018. "Transport electrification: the effect of recent battery cost reduction on future emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 95-108, November.
    10. Salvucci, Raffaele & Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Lehtilä, Antti & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 740-751.
    11. Zhang, Runsen & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Hanaoka, Tatsuya, 2018. "Contribution of the transport sector to climate change mitigation: Insights from a global passenger transport model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 76-88.
    12. Fujimori, S. & Kainuma, M. & Masui, T. & Hasegawa, T. & Dai, H., 2014. "The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-391.
    13. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    14. van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & Hof, Andries F. & Carrara, Samuel & Geels, Frank W. & Nilsson, Måns & Rogge, Karoline & Turnheim, Bruno & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. Alp, Osman & Tan, Tarkan & Udenio, Maximiliano, 2022. "Transitioning to sustainable freight transportation by integrating fleet replacement and charging infrastructure decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Pan, Xunzhang & Wang, Hailin & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2018. "Decarbonization of China's transportation sector: In light of national mitigation toward the Paris Agreement goals," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 853-864.
    17. Bahn, Olivier & Marcy, Mathilde & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2013. "Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 593-606.
    18. Girod, Bastien & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & de Vries, Bert, 2013. "Influence of travel behavior on global CO2 emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 183-197.
    19. Christopher Hoehne & Matteo Muratori & Paige Jadun & Brian Bush & Arthur Yip & Catherine Ledna & Laura Vimmerstedt & Kara Podkaminer & Ookie Ma, 2023. "Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.

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