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Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India

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Author Info

  • Lucas, Paul L.
  • Shukla, P.R.
  • Chen, Wenying
  • van Ruijven, Bas J.
  • Dhar, Subash
  • den Elzen, Michel G.J.
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2°C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 63 (2013)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 1032-1041

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:63:y:2013:i:c:p:1032-1041

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Copenhagen pledges; Two degrees; Energy dynamics;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Weitzel, Matthias & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Peterson, Sonja & Narita, Daiju, 2012. "Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 116-134.
    2. Shukla, Priyadarshi R. & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, 2012. "Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S487-S495.
    3. P. Shukla & Subash Dhar, 2011. "Climate agreements and India: aligning options and opportunities on a new track," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 229-243, September.
    4. Steckel, Jan Christoph & Jakob, Michael & Marschinski, Robert & Luderer, Gunnar, 2011. "From carbonization to decarbonization?--Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3443-3455, June.
    5. Garg, Amit & Shukla, P.R., 2009. "Coal and energy security for India: Role of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1032-1041.
    6. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S251-S260.
    7. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    8. van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper & Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & Deetman, Sebastiaan & den Elzen, Michel G.J., 2012. "Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S459-S469.
    9. Jasper Vliet & Maarten Berg & Michiel Schaeffer & Detlef Vuuren & Michel Elzen & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Malte Meinshausen, 2012. "Copenhagen Accord Pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2°C warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 551-561, July.
    10. Chen, Wenying & Wu, Zongxin & He, Jiankun & Gao, Pengfei & Xu, Shaofeng, 2007. "Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 59-72.
    11. van Ruijven, Bas & Urban, Frauke & Benders, René M.J. & Moll, Henri C. & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. & de Vries, Bert & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2008. "Modeling Energy and Development: An Evaluation of Models and Concepts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 2801-2821, December.
    12. Chen, Wenying & Li, Hualin & Wu, Zongxin, 2010. "Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7106-7120, November.
    13. van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & de Vries, Bert J.M. & Isaac, Morna & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. & Lucas, Paul L. & Balachandra, P., 2011. "Model projections for household energy use in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7747-7761.
    14. Chen, Wenying, 2005. "The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 885-896, May.
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