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Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation

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  • Gernaat, David E.H.J.
  • Van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • Van Vliet, Jasper
  • Sullivan, Patrick
  • Arent, Douglas J.

Abstract

Using the IMAGE/TIMER (The Targets IMage Energy Regional) long-term integrated assessment model, this paper explores the regional and global potential of offshore wind to contribute to global electricity production. We develop long-term cost supply curve for offshore wind, a representation of the potential suitable for inclusion in global integrated assessment models. For this, we combine available data on resource potential and cost estimates to estimate regional and global characteristics of offshore wind electricity generation. We find that for 2050, a baseline scenario would include about 4% of the total electricity production based on offshore wind. The findings also show that in most regions, technical potential is not a limiting factor. In some regions, that have a seriously constrained resource base for onshore wind, offshore wind could provide a key source of renewable energy, including South-East Asia, Indonesia and Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Gernaat, David E.H.J. & Van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Van Vliet, Jasper & Sullivan, Patrick & Arent, Douglas J., 2014. "Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 663-672.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:76:y:2014:i:c:p:663-672
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.062
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    8. Clare Hanmer & Charlie Wilson & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2022. "Translating Global Integrated Assessment Model Output into Lifestyle Change Pathways at the Country and Household Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-31, February.
    9. Dai, Hancheng & Silva Herran, Diego & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Key factors affecting long-term penetration of global onshore wind energy integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 19-30.
    10. Vieira, M. & Snyder, B. & Henriques, E. & Reis, L., 2019. "European offshore wind capital cost trends up to 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1364-1371.
    11. Castro-Santos, Laura & Filgueira-Vizoso, Almudena & Carral-Couce, Luis & Formoso, José Ángel Fraguela, 2016. "Economic feasibility of floating offshore wind farms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 868-882.
    12. Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Wierling, August, 2016. "Offshore wind investments – Realism about cost developments is necessary," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 170-181.
    13. Graziano, Marcello & Lecca, Patrizio & Musso, Marta, 2017. "Historic paths and future expectations: The macroeconomic impacts of the offshore wind technologies in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 715-730.
    14. de Boer, Harmen Sytze (H.S.) & van Vuuren, Detlef (D.P.), 2017. "Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER, an aggregated energy system simulation model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 600-611.
    15. De-Prada-Gil, Mikel & Díaz-González, Francisco & Gomis-Bellmunt, Oriol & Sumper, Andreas, 2015. "DFIG-based offshore wind power plant connected to a single VSC-HVDC operated at variable frequency: Energy yield assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 311-322.

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