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The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison

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  • Gunnar Luderer

    ()

  • Valentina Bosetti

    ()

  • Michael Jakob

    ()

  • Marian Leimbach

    ()

  • Jan Steckel

    ()

  • Henri Waisman

    ()

  • Ottmar Edenhofer

    ()

Abstract

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 450 ppm (roughly 530–550 ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450 ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-011-0105-x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

Volume (Year): 114 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 9-37

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Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:114:y:2012:i:1:p:9-37

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Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. John P. Weyant, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, and Geoff J. Blanford, 2006. "Overview of EMF-21: Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-32.
  2. Michael Jakob & Gunnar Luderer & Jan Steckel & Massimo Tavoni & Stephanie Monjon, 2012. "Time to act now? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 79-99, September.
  3. Jean-Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Céline Guivarch, 2010. "IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways," Post-Print hal-00566290, HAL.
  4. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  5. Enrica Cian & Valentina Bosetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2012. "Technology innovation and diffusion in “less than ideal” climate policies: An assessment with the WITCH model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 121-143, September.
  6. Ottmar Edenhofer, Kai Lessmann, Claudia Kemfert, Michael Grubb and Jonathan Kohler , 2006. "Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization: Synthesis Report from the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 57-108.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo, 2013. "The Macroeconomics evaluation of Climate Change Model (MECC-Model): The case Study of China," MPRA Paper 50021, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2013.
  2. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach & Gian-Kasper Plattner & Ottmar Edenhofer & Thomas Stocker & Christopher Field & Kristie Ebi & Patrick Matschoss, 2011. "The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 675-691, October.
  3. Robert Pietzcker & Thomas Longden & Wenying Chen & Sha Fu & Elmar Kriegler & Page Kyle & Gunnar Luderer, 2013. "Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models," Working Papers 2013.08, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Dirk Rübbelke & Stefan Vögele, 2013. "Time and tide wait for no man: pioneers and laggards in the deployment of CCS," Working Papers 2013-13, BC3.
  5. Elena Claire Ricci & Valentina Bosetti & Erin Baker, 2014. "From Expert Elicitations to Integrated Assessment: Future Prospects of Carbon Capture Technologies," Working Papers 2014.44, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. Gunnar Luderer & Enrica DeCian & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Marian Leimbach & Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "On the regional distribution of mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 59-78, September.
  7. Gunnar Luderer & Volker Krey & Katherine Calvin & James Merrick & Silvana Mima & Robert Pietzcker & Jasper Van Vliet & Kenichi Wada, 2014. "The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios," Post-Print halshs-00961843, HAL.
  8. Brigitte Knopf & Yen-Heng Henry Chen & Enrica De Cian & Hannah Förster & Amit Kanudia & Ioanna Karkatsouli & Ilkka Keppo & Tiina Koljonen & Katja Schumacher & Detlef van Vuuren, 2014. "Beyond 2020 - Strategies and Costs for Transforming the European Energy System," Working Papers 2014.15, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Mundaca T., Luis & Markandya, Anil & Nørgaard, Jørgen, 2013. "Walking away from a low-carbon economy? Recent and historical trends using a regional decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1471-1480.
  10. Luis M. Abadie & Ibon Galarraga & Dirk Rübbelke, 2013. "Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model," Working Papers 2013-07, BC3.
  11. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages S12-S23.
  12. Henri Waisman & Céline Guivarch & Fabio Grazi & Jean Hourcade, 2012. "The I maclim-R model: infrastructures, technical inertia and the costs of low carbon futures under imperfect foresight," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 101-120, September.

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