Time to act now? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action
AbstractThis paper compares the results of the three state of the art climate-energy-economy models IMACLIM-R, ReMIND-R, and WITCH to assess the costs of climate change mitigation in scenarios in which the implementation of a global climate agreement is delayed or major emitters decide to participate in the agreement at a later stage only. We find that for stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO 2-only, postponing a global agreement to 2020 raises global mitigation costs by at least about half and a delay to 2030 renders ambitious climate targets infeasible to achieve. In the standard policy scenario—in which allocation of emission permits is aimed at equal per-capita levels in the year 2050—regions with above average emissions (such as the EU and the US alongside the rest of Annex-I countries) incur lower mitigation costs by taking early action, even if mitigation efforts in the rest of the world experience a delay. However, regions with low per-capita emissions which are net exporters of emission permits (such as India) can possibly benefit from higher future carbon prices resulting from a delay. We illustrate the economic mechanism behind these observations and analyze how (1) lock-in of carbon intensive infrastructure, (2) differences in global carbon prices, and (3) changes in reduction commitments resulting from delayed action influence mitigation costs. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.
Volume (Year): 114 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro, Marzio Galeotti, Emanuele Massetti, Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "A World induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 13-38.
- Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Celine Guivarch, 2010.
"IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways,"
International Journal of Global Environmental Issues,
Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 5-24.
- Jean-Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Céline Guivarch, 2010. "IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways," Post-Print hal-00566290, HAL.
- Nordhaus, William D & Yang, Zili, 1996. "A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 741-65, September.
- Beccherle, Julien & Tirole, Jean, 2011.
"Regional initiatives and the cost of delaying binding climate change agreements,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1339-1348.
- Beccherle, Julien & Tirole, Jean, 2010. "Regional Initiatives and the Cost of Delaying Binding Climate Change Agreements," IDEI Working Papers 628, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Minh Ha-Duong & Michael Grubb & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 1997. "Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement," Post-Print halshs-00002452, HAL.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.