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Beyond 2020 - Strategies and Costs for Transforming the European Energy System

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Author Info

  • Brigitte Knopf

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Yen-Heng Henry Chen

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change)

  • Enrica De Cian

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Hannah Förster

    (Öko-Institut)

  • Amit Kanudia

    (KanORS-EMR)

  • Ioanna Karkatsouli

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change)

  • Ilkka Keppo

    (University College London)

  • Tiina Koljonen

    (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland)

  • Katja Schumacher

    (Öko-Institut)

  • Detlef van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University, Department of Geosciences)

Abstract

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and the interplay between different decarbonization options. The models present different technology pathways for the decarbonization of Europe, but a common finding across the scenarios and models is the prominent role of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. In particular, wind power and bioenergy increase considerably beyond current deployment levels. Up to 2030, the transformation strategies are similar across all models and for both levels of emission reduction. However, mitigation becomes more challenging after 2040. With some exceptions, our analysis agrees with the main findings of the “Energy Roadmap 2050” presented by the European Commission.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2014.15.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.15

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Keywords: European Decarbonisation; Mitigation Scenarios; Model Comparison; Climate Change; EU Energy Roadmap 2050;

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References

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  1. Gunnar Luderer & Valentina Bosetti & Michael Jakob & Marian Leimbach & Jan Steckel & Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 9-37, September.
  2. Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2012. "European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Post-Print halshs-00661043, HAL.
  3. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S251-S260.
  4. Koljonen, Tiina & Lehtilä, Antti, 2012. "The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S410-S420.
  5. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  6. Enrica Cian & Valentina Bosetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2012. "Technology innovation and diffusion in “less than ideal” climate policies: An assessment with the WITCH model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 121-143, September.
  7. Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & Ejaz, Qudsia J. & Morris, Jennifer & O'Sullivan, Francis & Rausch, Sebastian & Winchester, Niven & Kragha, Oghenerume, 2011. "The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5309-5321, September.
  8. Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2012. "German Nuclear Phase-out Policy: Effects on European Electricity Wholesale Prices, Emission Prices, Conventional Power Plant Investments and Eletricity Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1219, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Franziska Holz & Christian Von Hirschhausen, 2013. "The Infrastructure Implications Of The Energy Transformation In Europe Until 2050 — Lessons From The Emf28 Modeling Exercise," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(su), pages 1340006-1-1.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carlo Carraro & Massimo Tavoni & Thomas Longden & Giacomo Marangoni, 2013. "The Optimal Energy Mix in Power Generation and the Contribution from Natural Gas in Reducing Carbon Emissions to 2030 and Beyond," CESifo Working Paper Series 4432, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Lorenz Casimir & Gerbaulet Clemens & Holz Franziska & Abrell Jan & Hannes Weigt, 2013. "Combining Energy Networks: The Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Network on Electricity Markets until 2050," Working papers 2013/10, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  3. Franziska Holz & Philipp M. Richter & Ruud Egging, 2013. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Regional Supply Security in the Global Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1273, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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