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Beyond 2020 - Strategies and Costs for Transforming the European Energy System

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Author Info

  • Brigitte Knopf

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Yen-Heng Henry Chen

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change)

  • Enrica De Cian

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Hannah Förster

    (Öko-Institut)

  • Amit Kanudia

    (KanORS-EMR)

  • Ioanna Karkatsouli

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change)

  • Ilkka Keppo

    (University College London)

  • Tiina Koljonen

    (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland)

  • Katja Schumacher

    (Öko-Institut)

  • Detlef van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University, Department of Geosciences)

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    Abstract

    The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and the interplay between different decarbonization options. The models present different technology pathways for the decarbonization of Europe, but a common finding across the scenarios and models is the prominent role of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. In particular, wind power and bioenergy increase considerably beyond current deployment levels. Up to 2030, the transformation strategies are similar across all models and for both levels of emission reduction. However, mitigation becomes more challenging after 2040. With some exceptions, our analysis agrees with the main findings of the “Energy Roadmap 2050” presented by the European Commission.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2014.15.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.15

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    Related research

    Keywords: European Decarbonisation; Mitigation Scenarios; Model Comparison; Climate Change; EU Energy Roadmap 2050;

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    1. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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    3. Franziska Holz & Christian Von Hirschhausen, 2013. "The Infrastructure Implications Of The Energy Transformation In Europe Until 2050 — Lessons From The Emf28 Modeling Exercise," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(su), pages 1340006-1-1.
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    7. Koljonen, Tiina & Lehtilä, Antti, 2012. "The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S410-S420.
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    9. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S251-S260.
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