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Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: an assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector

Author

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  • Coenen, Günter
  • Lozej, Matija
  • Priftis, Romanos

Abstract

We use scenario analysis to assess the macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To this end, we employ a version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) augmented with a framework of disaggregated energy production and use, which distinguishes between “dirty” and “clean” energy. Our central transition scenario is that of a permanent increase in carbon taxes, which are levied as a surcharge on the price of dirty energy. Our findings suggest that increasing euro area carbon taxes to an interim target level consistent with the transition to a net-zero economy entails a transitory rise in inflation and a lasting, albeit moderate decline in GDP. We show that the short and medium-term effects depend on the monetary policy reaction, on the path of the carbon tax increase and on its credibility, while expanding clean energy supply is key for containing the decline in GDP. Undesirable distributional effects can be addressed by redistributing the fiscal revenues from the carbon tax increase to low-income households. JEL Classification: C54, E52, E62, H23, Q43

Suggested Citation

  • Coenen, Günter & Lozej, Matija & Priftis, Romanos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: an assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector," Working Paper Series 2819, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232819
    Note: 241047
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brand, Claus & Coenen, Günter & Hutchinson, John & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2023. "The macroeconomic implications of the transition to a low-carbon economy," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    2. Patrick Gruning & Zeynep Kantur, 2023. "Stranded Capital in Production Networks: Implications for the Economy of the Euro Area," Working Papers 2023/06, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Ferdinandusse, Marien & Kuik, Friderike & Priftis, Romanos, 2024. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of climate change transition policies," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon taxation; climate change; DSGE model; euro area; monetary policy; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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