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Will the green transition be inflationary? Expectations matter

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  • Alessandro Ferrari

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Valerio Nispi Landi

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We analyse a progressive increase in the tax on emissions in a simple two-period New Keynesian model with an AS-AD representation. We find that the increase in the tax today exerts inflationary pressures, but the expected further increase in the tax tomorrow depresses current demand, putting downward pressure on prices: we show that the second effect is larger. However, if households do not anticipate a future fall in income (because they are not rational or the government is not credible), the overall effect of the transition may be inflationary in the first period. We extend the analysis in a medium-scale DSGE model and we find again that the green transition is deflationary. Also in this larger model, by relaxing the rational expectations assumption, we show the transition may initially be inflationary.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Ferrari & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2022. "Will the green transition be inflationary? Expectations matter," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 686, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_686_22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    2. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2023. "No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Carbon Pricing on Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9563, CESifo.
    4. Gibson, John & Heutel, Garth, 2023. "Pollution and labor market search externalities over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    6. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Stefano Carattini & Garth Heutel & Givi Melkadze, 2023. "Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 778-794, December.
    8. Coenen, Günter & Karadi, Peter & Schmidt, Sebastian & Warne, Anders, 2018. "The New Area-Wide Model II: an extended version of the ECB’s micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector," Working Paper Series 2200, European Central Bank.
    9. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2015. "New-Keynesian economics: An AS–AD view," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 503-524.
    10. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Marotta, Fulvia, 2021. "Demand or supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2608, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Coenen, Günter & Lozej, Matija & Priftis, Romanos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: an assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector," Working Paper Series 2819, European Central Bank.
    2. Dück, Alexander & Le, Anh H., 2023. "Transition risk uncertainty and robust optimal monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 187, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. ""Green" fiscal policy measures and non-standard monetary policy in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Le, Anh H., 2023. "Climate change and carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management," IMFS Working Paper Series 191, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; AS AD; aggregate prices; climate policy; pollution tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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