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Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons From Transition Economies After 15 Years Of Reforms

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Vladimir Popov () (NES)

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Abstract

This paper starts by separating the transformational recession (reduction of output in most transition economies in the first half of the 1990s) from the process of economic growth (recovery from the transformational recession) in 28 transition economies (including China,Vietnam and Mongolia). It is argued that the former (the collapse of output during transition) can be best explained as adverse supply shock caused mostly by a change in relative prices after their deregulation due to distortions in industrial structure and trade patterns accumulated during the period of central planning, and by the collapse of state institutions during transition period, while the speed of liberalization, to the extent it was endogenous, i.e. determined by political economy factors, had an adverse effect on performance. In contrast, at the recovery stage the ongoing liberalization starts to affect growth positively, whereas the impact of pre-transition distortions disappears. Institutional capacity and reasonable macroeconomic policy, however, continue to be important prerequisites for successful performance.

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Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0068.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0068

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lau, Lawrence J. & Qian, Yingyi & Roland, Gerard, 1997. "Pareto-improving economic reforms through dual-track liberalization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 285-292, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 397-424, September.
  3. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. "The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 889-906, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Oleh Havrylyshyn & Ron van Rooden, 2003. "Institutions Matter in Transition, But So Do Policies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 2-24, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Atkeson, Andrew & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1996. "Social Insurance and Transition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 377-401, May.
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  6. Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 38, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Campos, Nauro F., 2000. "Context is everything : measuring institutional change in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2269, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sergio Godoy & Joseph Stiglitz, 2006. "Growth, Initial Conditions, Law and Speed of Privatization in Transition Countries: 11 Years Later," NBER Working Papers 11992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gérard Roland & Thierry Verdier, 1999. "Transition and the output fall," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marcello Signorelli & Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Institutional change, regional features and aggregate performance in eight EU’s transition countries," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 37/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica. [Downloadable!]
  2. Challet, Damien & Solomon, Sorin & Yaari, Gur, 2009. "The Universal Shape of Economic Recession and Recovery after a Shock," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Popov, Vladimir, 2009. "Lessons from the Transition Economies: Putting the Success Stories of the Postcommunist World into a Broader Perspective," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  4. Kolodko, Grzegorz W., 2009. "A Two-thirds Rate of Success: Polish Transformation and Economic Development, 1989-2008," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
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