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The Universal Shape of Economic Recession and Recovery after a Shock

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Author Info
Challet, Damien
Solomon, Sorin
Yaari, Gur

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Abstract

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector theoretical model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy. --

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2009-6.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7485

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Related research
Keywords: Economic growth; transition economies; GDP; modelling; prediction; optimal policy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "The Transition at Mid Decade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 128-33, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vladimir Popov, 2007. "Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 1-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.

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