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The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Evidence from selected CEE countries

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  • Hasanov, Mübariz
  • Omay, Tolga

Abstract

In this paper, we examine causal relationships among inflation rate, output growth rate, inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty for ten Central and Eastern European transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate a bivariate GARCH model that includes output growth and inflation rates for each country. Then we use conditional standard deviations of inflation and output to proxy nominal and real uncertainty, respectively, and perform Granger-causality tests. Our results suggest that inflation rate induces uncertainty about both inflation rate and output growth rate, which is detrimental for real economic activity. On the other hand, we find that output growth rate reduces macroeconomic uncertainty in some countries. In addition, we also examine and discuss causal relationships among remaining variables.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23764.

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Date of creation: 09 Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23764

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Keywords: Inflation; output growth; uncertainty; Granger-Causality tests; transition countries;

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Cited by:
  1. Tolga Omay, 2011. "The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Nonlinear Multivariate GARCH-M evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3006-3015.

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