The relationship between output growth and inflation: Evidence from Turkey
AbstractIn this study, a bi-variate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty model is used in order to investigate the Granger causality relationships between output growth, inflation rate and their uncertainties. Our test results show that the existence of Granger-causality is observed from nominal uncertainty to inflation, from nominal uncertainty to real uncertainty, from output growth to real uncertainty, from output growth to nominal uncertainty and from inflation to nominal uncertainty. These findings prove that theoretical predictions of Cuikerman and Meltzer (1986), Okun (1971) and Friedman (1977) are valid for the period 1986:6-2007:1 for Turkey. On the other hand, ‘Short-run Phillips Curve’ and ‘Taylor Effect’ have proven empirically to be invalid for Turkey for this sample period. Moreover, we deduce that Turkish inflation is affected by the output growth through the nominal uncertainty channel.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19953.
Date of creation: 10 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Inflation; output growth; uncertainty; Granger-Causality; bi-variate GARCH.;
Other versions of this item:
- Tolga OMAY & Nilay ALUFTEKIN & Ece C. KARADAGLI, 2010. "The Relationship Between Output Growth And Inflation: Evidence From Turkey," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 55-63.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-01-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2010-01-30 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-CWA-2010-01-30 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-FDG-2010-01-30 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2010-01-30 (Macroeconomics)
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