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The relationship between output growth and inflation: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Omay, Tolga
  • Aluftekin, Nilay
  • Karadagli, Ece C.

Abstract

In this study, a bi-variate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty model is used in order to investigate the Granger causality relationships between output growth, inflation rate and their uncertainties. Our test results show that the existence of Granger-causality is observed from nominal uncertainty to inflation, from nominal uncertainty to real uncertainty, from output growth to real uncertainty, from output growth to nominal uncertainty and from inflation to nominal uncertainty. These findings prove that theoretical predictions of Cuikerman and Meltzer (1986), Okun (1971) and Friedman (1977) are valid for the period 1986:6-2007:1 for Turkey. On the other hand, ‘Short-run Phillips Curve’ and ‘Taylor Effect’ have proven empirically to be invalid for Turkey for this sample period. Moreover, we deduce that Turkish inflation is affected by the output growth through the nominal uncertainty channel.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19953.

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Date of creation: 10 Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19953

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Keywords: Inflation; output growth; uncertainty; Granger-Causality; bi-variate GARCH.;

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  1. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
  2. A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
  3. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  5. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-37, August.
  6. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Hasanov, Mübariz & Omay, Tolga, 2010. "The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Evidence from selected CEE countries," MPRA Paper 23764, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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