Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Relationship Between Output Growth And Inflation: Evidence From Turkey

Contents:

Author Info

  • Tolga OMAY
  • Nilay ALUFTEKIN
  • Ece C. KARADAGLI

Abstract

In this study, a bi-variate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty model is used in order to investigate the Granger causality relationships between output growth, inflation rate and their uncertainties. Our test results show that the existence of Granger-causality is observed from nominal uncertainty to inflation, from nominal uncertainty to real uncertainty, from output growth to real uncertainty, from output growth to nominal uncertainty and from inflation to nominal uncertainty. These findings prove that theoretical predictions of Cuikerman and Meltzer (1986), Okun (1971) and Friedman (1977) are valid for the period 1986, 6 - 2007, 1 for Turkey. On the other hand, ‘Short-run Phillips Curve’ and ‘Taylor Effect’ have proven empirically to be invalid for Turkey for this sample period. Moreover, we deduce that Turkish inflation is affected by the output growth through the nominal uncertainty channel.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.jaes.reprograph.ro/articles/spring2010/OmayT_AluftekinN_KaradagliE.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.

Volume (Year): 5 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1(11)_Spring2010 ()
Pages: 55-63

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:5:y:2010:i:5(1)_spring2010:p:93

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: inflation; output growth; uncertainty; Granger-causality; bi-variate GARCH;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  2. Laurence Ball, 1990. "Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?," NBER Working Papers 3224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-37, August.
  4. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  6. A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Mübariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2011. "The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Evidence from Selected CEE Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(0), pages 5-20, July.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:5:y:2010:i:5(1)_spring2010:p:93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Stefanescu).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.