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The relationship between output growth and inflation: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Omay, Tolga
  • Aluftekin, Nilay
  • Karadagli, Ece C.

Abstract

In this study, a bi-variate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty model is used in order to investigate the Granger causality relationships between output growth, inflation rate and their uncertainties. Our test results show that the existence of Granger-causality is observed from nominal uncertainty to inflation, from nominal uncertainty to real uncertainty, from output growth to real uncertainty, from output growth to nominal uncertainty and from inflation to nominal uncertainty. These findings prove that theoretical predictions of Cuikerman and Meltzer (1986), Okun (1971) and Friedman (1977) are valid for the period 1986:6-2007:1 for Turkey. On the other hand, ‘Short-run Phillips Curve’ and ‘Taylor Effect’ have proven empirically to be invalid for Turkey for this sample period. Moreover, we deduce that Turkish inflation is affected by the output growth through the nominal uncertainty channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Omay, Tolga & Aluftekin, Nilay & Karadagli, Ece C., 2009. "The relationship between output growth and inflation: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19953
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mübariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2011. "The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Evidence from Selected CEE Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 5-20, July.
    2. El in Ayka Alp & Zeynep Biyik, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Dynamics: A Structural Long-run Analysis for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 350-356.
    3. Khemiri, Rim & Ali, Mohamed Sami Ben, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation dynamics in Tunisia: A Markov-switching approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-30.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; output growth; uncertainty; Granger-Causality; bi-variate GARCH.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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