IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Inflation Costs, Uncertainty Costs And Emerging Markets

  • William Miles

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Wichita State University)

  • Samuel Schreyer

    ()

    (Department of Economics, St. Cloud State University)

Registered author(s):

    Given the costs to real output that inflation uncertainty has been shown to impose, two recent papers have investigated the interaction of inflation and uncertainty for a group of emerging market nations. Both papers find that an increase in inflation almost invariably increases uncertainty in developing countries. This finding accords with the Friedman hypothesis and with most results for industrialized countries. However, there is both theoretical and some tentative empirical evidence suggesting that, when inflation is high, and thus costly, an increase in inflation can spur greater investment in predicting the path of prices, and actually reduce rather than increase uncertainty. This possibility is particularly relevant for emerging markets, some of which have histories of high inflation. Using a somewhat different empirical methodology than previous authors, we find that inflation does indeed lower uncertainty at some horizons, and, as per theory, does so predominantly in those countries in our sample with the higher rates of inflation.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.jed.or.kr/full-text/34-2/9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics in its journal Journal Of Economic Development.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (December)
    Pages: 169-183

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:34:y:2009:i:2:p:169-183
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.jed.or.kr/

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    2. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    3. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 10, December.
    4. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
    5. Kevin B. Grier & ´┐Żlan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
    6. Barnes, Michelle L & Duquette, Nicolas, 2006. "Threshold relationships among inflation, financial development, and growth," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 17, pages 141-149.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:34:y:2009:i:2:p:169-183. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Changhui Kang)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.