Inflation Costs, Uncertainty Costs And Emerging Markets
Given the costs to real output that inflation uncertainty has been shown to impose, two recent papers have investigated the interaction of inflation and uncertainty for a group of emerging market nations. Both papers find that an increase in inflation almost invariably increases uncertainty in developing countries. This finding accords with the Friedman hypothesis and with most results for industrialized countries. However, there is both theoretical and some tentative empirical evidence suggesting that, when inflation is high, and thus costly, an increase in inflation can spur greater investment in predicting the path of prices, and actually reduce rather than increase uncertainty. This possibility is particularly relevant for emerging markets, some of which have histories of high inflation. Using a somewhat different empirical methodology than previous authors, we find that inflation does indeed lower uncertainty at some horizons, and, as per theory, does so predominantly in those countries in our sample with the higher rates of inflation.
Volume (Year): 34 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.jed.or.kr/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barnes, Michelle L & Duquette, Nicolas, 2006. "Threshold relationships among inflation, financial development, and growth," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 17, pages 141-149.
- Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
- Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1997. "High and variable inflation: Further evidence on the Friedman hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 65-68, January.
- Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003.
"The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
187, Royal Economic Society.
- Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
- Cukierman Alex, 1992.
"Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence,"
Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines,
De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 10, December.
- Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:34:y:2009:i:2:p:169-183. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Changhui Kang)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.