The universal shape of economic recession and recovery after a shock
AbstractWe show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recession; we also discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector toy model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy. --
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.
Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 36 ()
Economic growth; GDP; shocks; response function; modelling; prediction; optimal policy;
Other versions of this item:
- Damien Challet & Sorin Solomon & Gur Yaari, 2008. "The universal shape of economic recession and recovery after a shock," Papers 0802.2004, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2009.
- Challet, Damien & Solomon, Sorin & Yaari, Gur, 2009. "The Universal Shape of Economic Recession and Recovery after a Shock," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
- O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
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