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What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment

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  • Nicolas Gavoille

    (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga))

  • Anna Zasova

    (Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS))

Abstract

The interactions between minimum wage policy and tax evasion remain largely unknown. We study firm-level employment effects of a large and biting minimum wage increase in the context of widespread wage underreporting. We apply machine learning to classify firms between tax-compliant and tax-evading using a unique combination of Latvian administrative and survey data. We then show that firms engaged in labor tax evasion are insensitive to the minimum wage shock. Our results indicate that these firms use wage underreporting as an adjustment margin, converting (part of) undeclared cash payments into legal wage. Increasing minimum wage contributes to tax rule enforcement, but comes at the cost of negative employment consequences for compliant firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 6, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:rpaper:6
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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantins Benkovskis & Olegs Matvejevs, 2023. "The New Version of Latvian CGE Model," Working Papers 2023/02, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Anna Pluta & Anna Zasova, 2023. "Keeping the best of two worlds: Linking CGE and microsimulation models for policy analysis," Working Papers 2023/01, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Tarasonis, Linas, 2023. "Wage and Employment Impact of Minimum Wage: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 592-609.
    4. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2021. "Foreign ownership and labor tax evasion: Evidence from Latvia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: A back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 372-402.
    6. Clemens, Jeffrey & Strain, Michael R., 2022. "Understanding “Wage Theft”: Evasion and avoidance responses to minimum wage increases," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: a back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 7, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    8. Bíró, Anikó & Prinz, Dániel & Sándor, László, 2022. "The minimum wage, informal pay, and tax enforcement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy

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