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Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: a back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis

Author

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  • Nicolas Gavoille

    (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga)and Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS))

  • Anna Zasova

    (Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS))

Abstract

The labor markets of many transition countries are characterized by two features: a spike at the minimum wage in wage distribution and widespread use of so-called envelope wages, i.e., non-declared cash coming in addition to the official wage. In this paper, we present a body of suggestive evidence highlighting the prevalence of wage underreporting among minimum wage earners. We study two minimum wage hikes implemented in Latvia in 2014 and 2015, and show that (i) minimum wage employees are more likely to survive these minimum wage hikes than employees earning slightly more, and (ii) minimum wage employees are more likely to switch to part-time work within the same firm than their peers earning slightly more. These effects are present in the sample of small (more prone to tax evasion) firms and are not found in the sample of big (less prone to tax evasion) firms. In addition, we show that minimum wage earners switching from employment in a small to a big firm enjoy a significantly larger wage gain than employees earning slightly more. Taken together, these results are consistent with tax evaders being overrepresented among minimum wage earners and are hard to rationalize otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "Minimum wage spike and income underreporting: a back-of-the-envelope-wage analysis," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 7, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:rpaper:7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "What we pay in the shadow: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," Working Papers CEB 21-017, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Putniņš, Tālis J. & Sauka, Arnis, 2015. "Measuring the shadow economy using company managers," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 471-490.
    3. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2021. "Foreign ownership and labor tax evasion: Evidence from Latvia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    4. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2009. "Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Micro Estimates of Tax Evasion Response and Welfare Effects in Russia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 504-554, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bíró, Anikó & Prinz, Dániel & Sándor, László, 2022. "The minimum wage, informal pay, and tax enforcement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

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