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Do Minimum Wages Really Reduce Teen Employment? Accounting for Heterogeneity and Selectivity in State Panel Data

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  • Allegretto, Sylvia
  • Dube, Arindrajit
  • Reich, Michael

Abstract

Traditional estimates of minimum wage effects include controls for state unemployment rates and state and year fixed-effects. Using CPS data on teens for the period 1990 – 2009, we show that such estimates fail to account for heterogeneous employment patterns that are correlated with selectivity among states with minimum wages. As a result, the estimates are often biased and vary with the source of identifying variation. Including controls for long-term growth differences among states and for heterogeneous economic shocks renders the employment and hours elasticities indistinguishable from zero and rules out any but small disemployment effects. Dynamic evidence further shows the nature of bias in traditional estimates, and it also rules out more negative long run effects. We do not find evidence of heterogeneous employment effects in different parts of the business cycle. We also consider predictable versus unpredictable changes in the minimum wage by looking at indexation of the minimum wage in some states.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley in its series Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series with number qt7jq2q3j8.

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Date of creation: 21 Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:indrel:qt7jq2q3j8

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Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences;

References

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  1. Joseph Sabia, 2009. "The Effects of Minimum Wage Increases on Retail Employment and Hours: New Evidence from Monthly CPS Data," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 75-97, March.
  2. Daniel Aaronson & Kyung-Hong Park & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2006. "The decline in teen labor force participation," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 2-18.
  3. Christopher L. Foote, 2007. "Space and time in macroeconomic panel data: young workers and state-level unemployment revisited," Working Papers 07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. Arindrajit Dube & Suresh Naidu & Michael Reich, 2007. "The Economic Effects of a Citywide Minimum Wage," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 60(4), pages 522-543, July.
  5. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne & Stanger, Shuchita, 1999. "The Highs and Lows of the Minimum Wage Effect: A Time-Series Cross-Section Study of the Canadian Law," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 318-50, April.
  6. Pinoli, Sara, 2010. "Rational Expectations and the Puzzling No-Effect of the Minimum Wage," IZA Discussion Papers 4933, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2008. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Immigrants," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 61(4), pages 544-563, July.
  8. William Wascher & David Neumark, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1362-1396, December.
  9. Laura Giuliano, 2007. "Minimum wage effects on employment, substitution, and the quality of the teenage labor supply: Evidence from personal data," Working Papers 0723, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Aumentare i salari minimi non provoca disoccupazione. Evidenze empiriche dagli Stati Uniti
    by keynesblog in Keynes Blog on 2012-06-25 08:36:33
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Cited by:
  1. Even, William E. & Macpherson, David A., 2012. "The Effect of Tip Credits on Earnings and Employment in the U.S. Restaurant Industry," IZA Discussion Papers 7092, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Dube, Arindrajit & Lester, T. William & Reich, Michael, 2012. "Minimum Wage Shocks, Employment Flows and Labor Market Frictions," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt76p927ks, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  3. Hanna Frings, 2013. "The Employment Effect of Industry-Specific, Collectively Bargained Minimum Wages," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(3), pages 258-281, 08.
  4. Philipp vom Berge & Hanna Frings & Alfredo R. Paloyo, 2013. "High-Impact Minimum Wages and Heterogeneous Regions," Ruhr Economic Papers 0408, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  5. John Schmitt, 2013. "Why Does the Minimum Wage Have No Discernible Effect on Employment?," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2013-04, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
  6. Fabian Slonimczyk & Peter Skott, 2010. "Employment and Distribution Effects of the Minimum Wage," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2010-03, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  7. David Neumark, 2009. "Alternative Labor Market Policies to Increase Economic Self-Sufficiency: Mandating Higher Wages, Subsidizing Employment, and Increasing Productivity," NBER Working Papers 14807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Dube, Arindrajit & Lester, T. William & Reich, Michael, 2011. "Do Frictions Matter in the Labor Market? Accessions, Separations and Minimum Wage Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 5811, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Addison, John T. & Blackburn, McKinley L. & Cotti, Chad D., 2011. "Minimum Wage Increases in a Soft U.S. Economy," Economics Series 273, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  10. David H. Autor & Alan Manning & Christopher L. Smith, 2010. "The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to U.S. Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment," CEP Discussion Papers dp1025, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. Laura Giuliano, 2009. "Minimum wage effects on employment, substitution, and the teenage labor supply: Evidence from personnel data," Working Papers 2010-5, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
  12. Addison, John T. & Blackburn, McKinley L. & Cotti, Chad, 2011. "Minimum Wage Increases Under Straightened Circumstances," IZA Discussion Papers 6036, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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