Rational Expectations and the Puzzling No-Effect of the Minimum Wage
AbstractThis paper argues that expectations are an important element that need to be included into the analysis of the effects of the minimum wage on employment. We show in a standard matching model that these effects are higher the lower is the likelihood associated to the minimum wage variation. This property also helps explaining the controversial results found in the empirical literature. When the policy is anticipated, the observed effect at the time of the actual variation is small and hard to identify. The model is tested on Spanish data, taking advantage of the unexpected change in the minimum wage following the election of Zapatero in 2004.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11405.
Date of creation: 04 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Minimum wage; Expectations; Heterogeneous matches;
Other versions of this item:
- Pinoli, Sara, 2010. "Rational Expectations and the Puzzling No-Effect of the Minimum Wage," IZA Discussion Papers 4933, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Pinoli, Sara, 2010. "Rational Expectations and the Puzzling No-Effect of the Minimum Wage," Working Paper Series 2010:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
- J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Neumark & William Wascher, 1995.
"Minimum wage effects on school and work transitions of teenagers,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
95-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 1995. "Minimum-Wage Effects on School and Work Transitions of Teenagers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 244-49, May.
- Alan Manning, 2003.
"The Real Thin Theory: Monopsony in Modern Labour Markets,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0564, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Manning, Alan, 2003. "The real thin theory: monopsony in modern labour markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 105-131, April.
- William Wascher & David Neumark, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1362-1396, December.
- Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2006.
"Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Worker Accessions and Separations,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 988-1013, 09.
- Portugal, Pedro & Cardoso, Ana Rute, 2002. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Worker Accessions and Separations," IZA Discussion Papers 544, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- repec:fth:prinin:300 is not listed on IDEAS
- Neumark, David & Wascher, William L., 2007.
"Minimum Wages and Employment,"
Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics,
now publishers, vol. 3(1â2), pages 1-182, March.
- Robin Boadway & Katherine Cuff, 1999.
"A Minimum Wage can be Welfare-Improving and Employment-Enhancing,"
980, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Boadway, Robin & Cuff, Katherine, 2001. "A minimum wage can be welfare-improving and employment-enhancing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 553-576, March.
- Robin Boadway & Katherine Cuff, 1999. "A Minimum Wage Can Be Welfare-Improving and Employment-Enhancing," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 72, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- David Card, 1992.
"Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage,"
NBER Working Papers
4058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Card, 1992. "Using regional variation in wages to measure the effects of the federal minimum wage," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 22-37, October.
- David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," Working Papers 680, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- James B. Rebitzer & Lowell J. Taylor, 1991.
"The Consequences of Minimum Wage Laws: Some New Theoretical Ideas,"
NBER Working Papers
3877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rebitzer, James B. & Taylor, Lowell J., 1995. "The consequences of minimum wage laws Some new theoretical ideas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 245-255, February.
- Alan Manning, 2001.
"Monopsony and the Efficiency of Labour Market Interventions,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0514, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Manning, Alan, 2004. "Monopsony and the efficiency of labour market interventions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 145-163, April.
- Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June.
- David Neumark & William L. Wascher, 2008. "Minimum Wages," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262141027, January.
- Christopher J. Flinn, 2006. "Minimum Wage Effects on Labor Market Outcomes under Search, Matching, and Endogenous Contact Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1013-1062, 07.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Expectations and the employment effect of minimum wages
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-06-18 14:42:00
- Allegretto, Sylvia & Dube, Arindrajit & Reich, Michael, 2010. "Do Minimum Wages Really Reduce Teen Employment? Accounting for Heterogeneity and Selectivity in State Panel Data," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt7jq2q3j8, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
- Hanna Frings, 2012. "The Employment Effect of Industry-Specific, Collectively-Bargained Minimum Wages," Ruhr Economic Papers 0348, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.