IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v60y2021i3d10.1007_s00181-019-01797-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hidden in plain sight: using household data to measure the shadow economy

Author

Listed:
  • Tomáš Lichard

    (University of Economics
    CERGE-EI)

  • Jan Hanousek

    (CERGE-EI
    CEPR, Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Randall K. Filer

    (CERGE-EI
    Hunter College and The Graduate Center, CUNY
    IZA
    CESifo)

Abstract

We develop an estimator of unreported income that relies on more flexible identifying assumptions than those that have been used previously. Assuming only that evaders have a higher consumption–income gap than non-evaders in surveys, our model enables the estimation of both the probability of hiding income and the amount of unreported income for each household. We illustrate the method using Czech and Slovak household budget surveys. Our results are robust to alternative specifications. Furthermore, we show that since the underreported share decreases with reported income, income inequality in these countries may be lower than suggested by the reported income.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomáš Lichard & Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2021. "Hidden in plain sight: using household data to measure the shadow economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1449-1476, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:60:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01797-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01797-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-019-01797-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-019-01797-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2012. "Winning the War: Poverty from the Great Society to the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 133-200.
    2. Claus Thustrup Kreiner & David Dreyer Lassen & Søren Leth-Petersen, 2014. "Measuring the Accuracy of Survey Responses Using Administrative Register Data: Evidence from Denmark," NBER Chapters, in: Improving the Measurement of Consumer Expenditures, pages 289-307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eichenbaum, Martin & Hansen, Lars Peter, 1990. "Estimating Models with Intertemporal Substitution Using Aggregate Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 53-69, January.
    4. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Tax Avoidance And The Deadweight Loss Of The Income Tax," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 674-680, November.
    5. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    6. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2014. "Optimal Taxation of Top Labor Incomes: A Tale of Three Elasticities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 230-271, February.
    7. Marcus Ruge, 2010. "Determinants and Size of the Shadow Economy - A Structural Equation Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 511-523.
    8. Pakoš, Michal, 2011. "Estimating Intertemporal and Intratemporal Substitutions When Both Income and Substitution Effects Are Present: The Role of Durable Goods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 439-454.
    9. Bonggeun Kim & John Gibson & Chul Chung, 2017. "Using Panel Data to Estimate Income Under-Reporting by the Self-Employed," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(1), pages 41-64, January.
    10. Swamy, Anand & Knack, Stephen & Lee, Young & Azfar, Omar, 2001. "Gender and corruption," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 25-55, February.
    11. Panayiota Lyssiotou & Panos Pashardes & Thanasis Stengos, 2004. "Estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 622-640, July.
    12. Gerxhani, Klarita & Schram, Arthur, 2006. "Tax evasion and income source: A comparative experimental study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 402-422, June.
    13. Masao Ogaki & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1078-1098, October.
    14. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank.
    15. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Wojciech Kopczuk & Joseph P. Lupton, 2007. "To Leave or Not to Leave: The Distribution of Bequest Motives," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 207-235.
    17. Baldry, Jonathan C, 1987. "Income Tax Evasion and the Tax Schedule: Some Experimental Results," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 42(3), pages 357-383.
    18. Eckel, Catherine C. & Grossman, Philip J., 2008. "Men, Women and Risk Aversion: Experimental Evidence," Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, in: Charles R. Plott & Vernon L. Smith (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 113, pages 1061-1073, Elsevier.
    19. Erik Hurst & Geng Li & Benjamin Pugsley, 2014. "Are Household Surveys Like Tax Forms? Evidence from Income Underreporting of the Self-Employed," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 19-33, March.
    20. Serguey Braguinsky & Sergey Mityakov & Andrey Liscovich, 2014. "Direct Estimation of Hidden Earnings: Evidence from Russian Administrative Data," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 281-319.
    21. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
    22. Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Tax evasion and measurement error: An econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-10, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    23. Prado, Mauricio, 2011. "Government policy in the formal and informal sectors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1120-1136.
    24. Matthew Brzozowski & Thomas F. Crossley, 2011. "Viewpoint: Measuring the well‐being of the poor with income or consumption: a Canadian perspective," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 88-106, February.
    25. Diego Martinez-Lopez, 2013. "The underreporting of income by self-employed workers in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 353-371, November.
    26. Schneider, Friedrich & Buehn, Andreas, 2012. "Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?," IZA Discussion Papers 6891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    27. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2009. "Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Micro Estimates of Tax Evasion Response and Welfare Effects in Russia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 504-554, June.
    28. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2018. "Time varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 403-421.
    29. Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Chunling Fu, 2015. "Sheltered Income: Estimating Income Under-Reporting in Canada, 1998 and 2004," Staff Working Papers 15-22, Bank of Canada.
    30. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Liu, Feng, 2013. "Excise tax avoidance: The case of state cigarette taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1130-1141.
    31. Merike Kukk & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "Income underreporting by households with business income: evidence from Estonia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 257-276, June.
    32. Naomi E. Feldman & Joel Slemrod, 2007. "Estimating tax noncompliance with evidence from unaudited tax returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 327-352, March.
    33. Raj Arunachalam & Trevon Logan, 2016. "On the heterogeneity of dowry motives," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 135-166, January.
    34. Per Engstrom & Bertil Holmlund, 2009. "Tax evasion and self-employment in a high-tax country: evidence from Sweden," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2419-2430.
    35. Jha, Chandan Kumar & Sarangi, Sudipta, 2018. "Women and corruption: What positions must they hold to make a difference?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 219-233.
    36. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984–2006," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 510-543, September.
    37. Ann‐Sofie Kolm & Søren Bo Nielsen, 2008. "Under‐reporting of Income and Labor Market Performance," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(2), pages 195-217, April.
    38. Robert W. McGee, 2012. "Gender and the Ethics of Tax Evasion: An Empirical Study of 82 Countries," Springer Books, in: Robert W. McGee (ed.), The Ethics of Tax Evasion, chapter 0, pages 415-439, Springer.
    39. Dickens, William T & Lang, Kevin, 1985. "A Test of Dual Labor Market Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 792-805, September.
    40. Pissarides, Christopher A. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 17-32, June.
    41. Joel Slemrod & Caroline Weber, 2012. "Evidence of the invisible: toward a credibility revolution in the empirical analysis of tax evasion and the informal economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 25-53, February.
    42. William T. Dickens & Kevin Lang, 1985. "Testing Dual Labor Market Theory: A Reconsideration of the Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Lindsay Tedds, 2010. "Estimating the income reporting function for the self-employed," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 669-687, June.
    44. Jan Hanousek & Filip Palda, 2006. "Problems measuring the underground economy in transition1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(4), pages 707-718, October.
    45. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26447, December.
    46. Milton Friedman, 1957. "The Relation between the Permanent Income and Relative Income Hypotheses," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 157-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Claudio Quintano & Paolo Mazzocchi, 2010. "Some Alternative Estimates of Underground Economies in 12 New EU Member States," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 611-628.
    48. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984-2006," Working Papers 1303, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    49. A. D. Roy, 1951. "Some Thoughts On The Distribution Of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 135-146.
    50. Douglas, Stratford M & Conway, Karen Smith & Ferrier, Gary D, 1995. "A Switching Frontier Model for Imperfect Sample Separation Information: With an Application to Constrained Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 503-529, May.
    51. Arnold Harberger, 1964. "Taxation, Resource Allocation, and Welfare," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Direct and Indirect Taxes in the Federal Reserve System, pages 25-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Joel Slemrod, 2007. "Cheating Ourselves: The Economics of Tax Evasion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 25-48, Winter.
    53. Mike Brewer & Cormac O'Dea, 2012. "Measuring living standards with income and consumption: evidence from the UK," IFS Working Papers W12/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    54. Thomas, Jim, 1999. "Quantifying the Black Economy: 'Measurement without Theory' Yet Again?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 381-389, June.
    55. Fabio Clementi & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Pareto's Law of Income Distribution: Evidence for Grermany, the United Kingdom, and the United States," Microeconomics 0505006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Robert W. McGee (ed.), 2012. "The Ethics of Tax Evasion," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-1-4614-1287-8, September.
    57. Ceyhun Elgin & Oguz Oztunali, 2012. "Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates," Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    58. Nikolaos Artavanis & Adair Morse & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2016. "Measuring Income Tax Evasion Using Bank Credit: Evidence from Greece," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 739-798.
    59. Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri, 2012. "Strong Evidence for Gender Differences in Risk Taking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 50-58.
    60. Lee, Lung-Fei & Porter, Robert H, 1984. "Switching Regression Models with Imperfect Sample Separation Information-With an Application on Cartel Stability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 391-418, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Friedrich Schneider, 2021. "Do Different Estimation Methods Lead to Implausible Differences in the Size of the Non-Observed or Shadow Economies? A Preliminary Answer," CESifo Working Paper Series 9434, CESifo.
    2. Fauser, Hannes & Godar, Sarah, 2021. "Income tax noncompliance in Germany, 2001-2014," Discussion Papers 2021/17, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Tomáš Lichard & Filip Pertold & Samuel Škoda, 2021. "Do women face a glass ceiling at home? The division of household labor among dual-earner couples," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1209-1243, December.
    4. Mehmet Burak Turgut & Tomasz Tratkiewicz, 2023. "Estimate of the Underground Economy in Poland Based on Household Expenditures and Incomes," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 15(1), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Cingl, Lubomír & Lichard, Tomáš & Miklánek, Tomáš, 2023. "Tax designation effects on compliance: An online experiment with taxpayers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 615-633.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomas Lichard & Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2012. "Measuring the Shadow Economy: Endogenous Switching Regression with Unobserved Separation," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 438, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    2. Hanousek, Jan & Lichard, Tomáš & Torosyan, Karine, 2016. "‘Flattening’ the Tax Evasion: Evidence from the Post-Communist Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 11229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Randall K. Filer & Jan Hanousek & Tomáš Lichard & Karine Torosyan, 2019. "‘Flattening’ tax evasion? : Evidence from the post‐communist natural experiment," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 27(1), pages 223-246, January.
    4. Ana Cinta G. Cabral & Norman Gemmell & Nazila Alinaghi, 2021. "Are survey-based self-employment income underreporting estimates biased? New evidence from matched register and survey data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 284-322, April.
    5. Odd E Nygård & Joel Slemrod & Thor O Thoresen, 2019. "Distributional Implications of Joint Tax Evasion," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1894-1923.
    6. Cabral, Ana Cinta G. & Gemmell, Norman, 2018. "Estimating Self-Employment Income-Gaps from Register and Survey Data: Evidence for New Zealand," Working Paper Series 7625, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    7. Per Engström & Johannes Hagen & Edvard Johansson, 2021. "Estimating Tax Noncompliance among the Self-Employed – Evidence from Pleasure Boat Registers," Discussion Papers 144, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    8. Per Engström & Johannes Hagen & Edvard Johansson, 2023. "Estimating tax noncompliance among the self-employed—evidence from pleasure boat registers," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1747-1771, December.
    9. Merike Kukk & Alari Paulus & Karsten Staehr, 2020. "Cheating in Europe: underreporting of self-employment income in comparative perspective," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 363-390, April.
    10. Nicolas Gavoille & Anna Zasova, 2021. "What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," SSE Riga/BICEPS Research Papers 6, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies (BICEPS);Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga).
    11. Ana Cinta G Cabral & Christos Kotsogiannis & Gareth Myles, 2019. "Self-Employment Income Gap in Great Britain: How Much and Who?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 65(1), pages 84-107.
    12. Hai Anh La & Duc Anh Dang, 2018. "Income under-reporting and tax evasion: How they impact inequality in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 148, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Income underreporting based on income-expenditure gaps: survey vs tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    14. James Alm, 2019. "What Motivates Tax Compliance?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 353-388, April.
    15. Hai Anh La & Duc Anh Dang, 2018. "Income under-reporting and tax evasion: How they impact inequality in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-148, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Niizeki, Takeshi & Hamaaki, Junya, 2023. "Do the self-employed underreport their income? Evidence from Japanese panel data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Cabral, Ana Cinta G. & Gemmell, Norman, 2018. "Estimating Self-Employment Income-Gaps from Register and Survey Data: Evidence for New Zealand," Working Paper Series 20833, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    18. Todd Kumler & Eric Verhoogen & Judith Frías, 2020. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 881-896, December.
    19. Paulus, Alari, 2015. "Tax evasion and measurement error: An econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records," ISER Working Paper Series 2015-10, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    20. Nikolaos Artavanis & Adair Morse & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2015. "Tax Evasion across Industries: Soft Credit Evidence from Greece," NBER Working Papers 21552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax evasion; Income underreporting; Consumption–income gap; Income inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:60:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01797-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.