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CRECIMIENTO, COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL E INSTITUCIONES: Reflexiones a Raíz de las Negociaciones TLC-ALCA

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  • Sergio Clavijo

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    Abstract

    Las discusiones TLC- ALCA hacen pertinente revisar los problemas de crecimiento, apertura y consolidación institucional en Colombia. Dichas negociaciones trascienden los temas arancelarios e incluyen derechos de propiedad y organización institucional. El crecimiento del ingreso real per-capita de América Latina presenta un rezago abismal respecto al del Sudeste Asiático (1,5% vs. 4,8% anual durante 1965-2004), agravándose durante el periodo post-crisis 1997-2004. Mientras Asia ha duplicado su ingreso per-capita cada quince años, América Latina ha tenido que esperar casi medio siglo y Colombia cerca de 40 años. Las negociaciones TLC- ALCA posibilitan modernizar nuestra economía y mejorar la organización institucional. Ningún país en vías en desarrollo ha logrado consolidar su crecimiento sin volcarse sobre el mercado externo. Para sostener el camino de desarrollo no existe formula diferente a la de aplicar buenas políticas económicas: baja inflación, tasas de cambio flexibles, un buen régimen tributario (con adecuada progresividad social), descentralización fiscal. Esto se verá forzado a medida que se mejore la organización Estatal y es aquí donde las negociaciones internacionales deben constituirse en un buen "anclaje" institucional.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 307.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:307

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    Keywords: Crecimiento y Apertura (F43); Instituciones & América Latina (N46).;

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    1. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Sergio Clavijo, 2003. "CRECIMIENTO, PRODUCTIVIDAD Y LA 'NUEVA ECONOMÍA': Implicaciones para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002231, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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    9. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    10. Clavijo Sergio, 1998. "Repensando el desarrollo colombiano para el siglo XXI: lecciones de 35 años de crecimiento del Sudeste Asiático," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    11. Miles Kenneth LIGHT & Thomas Fox RUTHERFORD, 2003. "Free Trade Area of the Americas. An impact Assessment for Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 002744, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
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