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Macroeconomic Policy and the Distribution of Growth Rates

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  • Sirimaneetham, Vatcharin
  • Temple, Jonathan

Abstract

We examine the view that high-quality macroeconomic policy is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for economic growth. We first construct a new index of the quality of macroeconomic policy. We then directly compare growth rate distributions across countries with good and bad policies; use Bayesian methods to examine the partial correlation between policy and growth; and outline how growth and steady-state income levels might have differed, had all countries achieved good policy outcomes. One finding is that bad macroeconomic policies can be offset by other factors, but the fastest-growing countries in our sample all shared high-quality macroeconomic management.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5642.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5642

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Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging; counterfactuals; economic growth; macroeconomic policy; Washington Consensus;

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Cited by:
  1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hc01napj8 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Ann Owen & Julio Videras & Lewis Davis, 2009. "Do all countries follow the same growth process?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 265-286, December.
  3. Bos, J.W.B. & Economidou, C. & Koetter, M. & Kolari, J.W., 2010. "Do all countries grow alike?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 113-127, January.
  4. Mauro Napoletano & Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2010. "Performances et politiques de croissance : un éclairage empirique à partir d’une étude de l’effet de la taille des pays et nouvelles réflexions théoriques," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.
  5. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2012. "Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 333-340.
  6. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, 2006. "Explaining policy volatility in developing countries," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/583, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  7. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  8. Altug, Sumru G. & Filiztekin, Alpay & Pamuk, Sevket, 2007. "The Sources of Long-term Economic Growth for Turkey, 1880-2005," CEPR Discussion Papers 6463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Mauro Napoletano & Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2009. "Country Size, Appropriate Policy, and Economic Performance: Some Evidence from OECD Countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  10. Rosa Bernardini Papalia & Silvia Bertarelli, 2013. "Nonlinearities in economic growth and club convergence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1171-1202, June.
  11. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, 2006. "What drives liberal policies in developing countries?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/587, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  12. Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2012. "Removing the constraints for growth: Some guidelines," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 948-970.

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