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On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty

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  • Cruz, Marcio
  • Ahmed, S. Amer

Abstract

Changing population age-structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries, bringing both opportunities and challenges. Rapid population growth is set to continue in the poorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time, these countries will see sustained increases in the shares of their population that are of working-age, and these shifts have the potential to boost growth and poverty reduction. However, the sensitivity of growth, poverty reduction, and shared prosperity to these changes is unclear. This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect growth and saving and estimates the association between changes in the share of working age population with growth and savings. In addition, the paper examines the implications of changes in age-structure on poverty and shared prosperity. An increase of one percentage point in the working-age population share is found to boost GDP per capita by more than one percent with similarly positive effects on savings and poverty reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz, Marcio & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2016. "On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty," Conference papers 332782, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332782
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    Cited by:

    1. Sinem Kilic Celik & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2020. "Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2009, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    3. Sibusiso Mkwananzi & Ololade Julius Baruwa, 2022. "Chasing the Youth Dividend in Nigeria, Malawi and South Africa: What Is the Role of Poverty in Determining the Health and Health Seeking Behaviour of Young Women?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-9, October.
    4. Maliszewska, Maryla & Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Winters, Alan, 2016. "Cashing in the demographic dividend," Conference papers 332794, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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