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The trend in female labour force participation: what can be expected for the future?

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  • Rob Euwals

    ()

  • Marike Knoef

    ()

  • Daniel Vuuren

    ()

Abstract

During the 1980s and 1990s, the Netherlands experienced a strong increase in the labour force participation of women. This study investigates the increase of participation over the successive generations of women, and produces an educated guess for future participation. For this purpose, we estimate a binary age-period-cohort model for the generations born between 1925 and 1986, using data from the Dutch Labour Force Survey 1992-2004. The results indicate that the increasing level of education, the diminishing negative effect of children, and unobserved cohort effects have played an important role. According to our estimates, the increase in unobserved cohort effects has stopped since the generation born in 1955. This result is in line with results of studies on social norms and attitudes towards the combination of female employment and family responsibilities, which show a similar pattern over the successive generations. We observe that future participation growth importantly depends on the evolvement of attitudes towards the combination of paid work and children. We have therefore constructed two alternative future scenarios, the first with constant norms with respect to this factor, and the second with a further evolvement. It is estimated that the remaining growth will compensate for about one third of the structural fiscal deficit caused by population ageing in the Netherlands.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 40 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 729-753

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:40:y:2011:i:3:p:729-753

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Related research

Keywords: Female labour force participation; Age–period–cohort analysis; Future development; J11; J21;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Almut Balleer & Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Jarkko Turunen, 2014. "Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1385-1415, June.
  2. Bart Loog & Thomas Dohmen & Maarten Vendrik, 2013. "The Scope for Increasing Total Hours Worked," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 157-174, June.
  3. An Liu & Inge Noback, 2011. "Determinants of regional female labour market participation in the Netherlands," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 641-658, December.
  4. Pierre Koning & Max Raterink, 2013. "Re-employment Rates of Older Unemployed Workers: Decomposing the Effect of Birth Cohorts and Policy Changes," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 331-348, September.
  5. Vendrik Maarten & Cörvers Frank, 2009. "Male and female labour force participation: the role of dynamic adjustments to changes in labour demand, government policies and autonomous trends," Research Memorandum 036, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  6. Rob Euwals & Daniel van Vuuren & Annemiek van Vuren, 2011. "The impact of reforms on labour market exit probabilities," CPB Discussion Paper 179, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  7. de Grip, Andries & Fouarge, Didier & Montizaan, Raymond, 2013. "How Sensitive Are Individual Retirement Expectations to Raising the Retirement Age?," IZA Discussion Papers 7269, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Otto Kässi, 2014. "Earnings dynamics of men and women in Finland: permanent inequality versus earnings instability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 451-477, March.
  9. Cipollone, Angela & Patacchini, Eleonora & Vallanti, Giovanna, 2012. "Women’s Labour Market Performance in Europe: Trends and Shaping Factors," CEPS Papers 7329, Centre for European Policy Studies.
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  11. Euwals, Rob & van Vuren, Annemiek & van Vuuren, Daniel, 2011. "The Decline of Early Retirement Pathways in the Netherlands: An Empirical Analysis for the Health Care Sector," IZA Discussion Papers 5810, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Suzanne Kok & Nicole Bosch & Anja Deelen & Rob Euwals, 2011. "Migrant Women on the Labour Market," CPB Discussion Paper 180, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  13. Stefan Groot & Henri de Groot, 2011. "Wage inequality in the Netherlands: Evidence, trends and explanations," CPB Discussion Paper 186, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  14. Stefan Groot, 2011. "Wages in the Netherlands: a Micro Approach," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1526, European Regional Science Association.
  15. Cipollone, Angela & Patacchini, Eleonora & Vallanti, Giovanna, 2013. "Women Labor Market Participation in Europe: Novel Evidence on Trends and Shaping Factors," IZA Discussion Papers 7710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Kok, Suzanne & Bosch, Nicole & Deelen, Anja & Euwals, Rob, 2011. "Migrant Women on the Labour Market: On the Role of Home- and Host-Country Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 5817, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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