Just cuts for fossil fuels? Supply-side carbon constraints and energy transition

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions has generally been approached through demand-side initiatives, yet there are increasing calls for supply-side interventions to curtail fossil fuel production. Pursuing energy transition through supply-side constraints would have major geopolitical and economic consequences. Depending on the criteria and instruments applied, supply cuts for fossil fuels could drastically reduce and reorient major financial flows and reshape the spatiality of energy production and consumption. Building on debates about just transitions and supply constraints, we provide a survey of emerging interventions targeting the supply of, rather than the demand for, fossil fuels. We articulate four theories of justice and criteria to prioritize cuts among fossil fuel producers, including with regard to carbon intensity, production costs, affordability, developmental efficiency and support for climate change action. We then examine seven major supply constraint instruments, their effectiveness and possible pathways to supply cuts in the coal, oil and gas sectors. We suggest that supply cuts both reflect and offer purposeful political spaces of interventions towards a ‘just’ transition away from fossil fuel production.