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Demand forecasting of diesel passenger car considering consumer preference and government regulation in South Korea

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  • Lee, Jongsu
  • Cho, Youngsang
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    Abstract

    Changing market regulations in South Korea have allowed diesel-fueled passenger cars in the domestic market. The diffusion of diesel cars is tied to issues of environmental impact, energy supply and demand, and changes in tax revenue. Policymakers can influence demand for diesel vehicles to protect social welfare and to observe international environmental protection laws. On the supply side, carmakers need to know consumer preferences regarding new vehicles to arrive at development strategies. This study uses microsimulated demand forecasting to address these issues and predict consumer demand for diesel passenger cars. The model accommodates governmental policies and car attributes such as price and engine efficiency. We find that consumers will likely prefer diesel passenger cars to gasoline ones due to the low operation costs of the former in spite of high purchase price when diesel is relatively cheaper than gasoline. Finally we find that diesel passenger cars will capture a 42% market penetration ratio under the pricing system suggested by the Ministry of Environment of Korea.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 43 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 (May)
    Pages: 420-429

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:43:y:2009:i:4:p:420-429

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    Keywords: Demand forecasting Conjoint analysis Diesel passenger car;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Truschkin, Eugen & Elbert, Ralf, 2013. "Horizontal transshipment technologies as enablers of combined transport: Impact of transport policies on the modal split," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-109.
    2. Al-Ghandoor, Ahmed & Jaber, Jamal & Al-Hinti, Ismael & Abdallat, Yousef, 2013. "Statistical assessment and analyses of the determinants of transportation sector gasoline demand in Jordan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 129-138.
    3. Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M., 2011. "Experimental design influences on stated choice outputs: An empirical study in air travel choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 63-79, January.
    4. Tovar, Miguel A., 2011. "An integral evaluation of dieselisation policies for households' cars," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5228-5242, September.

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