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Potential demand for alternative fuel vehicles

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  • Dagsvik, John K.
  • Wennemo, Tom
  • Wetterwald, Dag G.
  • Aaberge, Rolf

Abstract

This paper analyzes the potential household demand for alternative fuel vehicles in Norway, by applying data from a stated preference survey. The alternative fuel vehicles we consider are liquid propane gas and electric powered vehicles in addition to a dual-fuel vehicle. In this survey each respondent, in a randomly selected sample, was exposed to 15 experiments. In each experiment the respondent is asked to rank three hypothetical vehicles characterized by specified attributes, according to the respondent's preferences. Several versions of a random utility model are formulated and estimated. They include the ordered logit model and a model with preferences that are correlated across experiments. The model is applied to predict changes in demand resulting from price changes, and to assess the willingness to pay for alternative fuel vechicles.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part B: Methodological.

Volume (Year): 36 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 361-384

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Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:36:y:2002:i:4:p:361-384

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References

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  1. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1j6814b3, University of California Transportation Center.
  2. Hensher, David A., 1982. "Functional measurement, individual preference and discrete-choice modelling: Theory and application," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 323-335, December.
  3. Dagsvik, John K., 1988. "Markov chains generated by maximizing components of multidimensional extremal processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 31-45, April.
  4. Mannering, Fred L. & Train, Kenneth, 1985. "Recent directions in automobile demand modeling," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 265-274, August.
  5. John K. Dagsvik & Dag G. Wetterwald & Rolf Aaberge, 1996. "Potential Demand for Alternative Fuel Vehicles," Discussion Papers 165, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  6. Beggs, S. & Cardell, S. & Hausman, J., 1981. "Assessing the potential demand for electric cars," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, September.
  7. Calfee, John E., 1985. "Estimating the demand for electric automobiles using fully disaggregated probabilistic choice analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 287-301, August.
  8. Dagsvik, J.K., 1995. "The Structure of Intertemporal Models for Myopic Discrete Choice with Random Preferences," Memorandum 11/1995, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zhang, Yong & Yu, Yifeng & Zou, Bai, 2011. "Analyzing public awareness and acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles in China: The case of EV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7015-7024.
  2. Lurås, Hilde, 2009. "Individuals' preferences for GPs Choice analysis from the establishment of a list patient system in Norway," HERO On line Working Paper Series 2003:5, Oslo University, Health Economics Research Programme.
  3. Jérôme Massiani & Jörg Radeke, . "Cost-Benefit Analysis of policies for the development of electric vehicles in Germany: methods and results," Working Papers 2013:02, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  4. Jérôme Massiani, 2013. "The use of Stated Preferences to forecast alternative fuel vehicles market diffusion: Comparisons with other methods and proposal for a Synthetic Utility Function," Working Papers 2013:12, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  5. Alexandros Dimitropoulos & Piet Rietveld & Jos N. van Ommeren, 2011. "Consumer Valuation of Driving Range: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-133/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. John K. Dagsvik & Gang Liu, 2006. "A Framework for Analyzing Rank Ordered Panel Data with Application to Automobile Demand," Discussion Papers 480, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  7. Jones, Luke R. & Cherry, Christopher R. & Vu, Tuan A. & Nguyen, Quang N., 2013. "The effect of incentives and technology on the adoption of electric motorcycles: A stated choice experiment in Vietnam," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-11.
  8. Dagsvik, John K. & Wennemo, Tom & Wetterwald, Dag G. & Aaberge, Rolf, 2002. "Potential demand for alternative fuel vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 361-384, May.
  9. Adrián Saldarriaga-Isaza, C. & Vergara, Carlos, 2009. "Who switches to hybrids? A study of a fuel conversion program in Colombia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 572-579, June.
  10. Andreas Ziegler, 2010. "Individual Characteristics and Stated Preferences for Alternative Energy Sources and Propulsion Technologies in Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Analysis," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 10/125, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  11. Hidrue, Michael K. & Parsons, George R. & Kempton, Willett & Gardner, Meryl P., 2011. "Willingness to pay for electric vehicles and their attributes," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 686-705, September.
  12. Alexandros Dimitropoulos & Piet Rietveld & Jos N. van Ommeren, 2011. "Consumer Valuation of Driving Range: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-133/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. Caulfield, Brian & Farrell, Séona & McMahon, Brian, 2010. "Examining individuals preferences for hybrid electric and alternatively fuelled vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 381-387, November.
  14. Ziegler, Andreas, 2012. "Individual characteristics and stated preferences for alternative energy sources and propulsion technologies in vehicles: A discrete choice analysis for Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1372-1385.
  15. Jérôme Massiani, 2013. "SP surveys for electric and alternative fuel vehicles: are we doing the right thing?," Working Papers 2013_01, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  16. Ahn, Jiwoon & Jeong, Gicheol & Kim, Yeonbae, 2008. "A forecast of household ownership and use of alternative fuel vehicles: A multiple discrete-continuous choice approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2091-2104, September.
  17. Sverre Grepperud, 1997. "Soil Depletion Choices under Production and Price Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 186, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  18. Beck, Matthew J. & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2013. "Environmental attitudes and emissions charging: An example of policy implications for vehicle choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 171-182.
  19. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Rietveld, Piet & van Ommeren, Jos N., 2013. "Consumer valuation of changes in driving range: A meta-analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-45.
  20. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Consumer Preferences for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Analysis," FCN Working Papers 20/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  21. Takanori Ida & Kayo Murakami & Makoto Tanaka, 2012. "Keys to Smart Home Diffusion: A Stated Preference Analysis of Smart Meters, Photovoltaic Generation, and Electric/Hybrid Vehicles," Discussion papers e-11-011, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
  22. Ozaki, Ritsuko & Sevastyanova, Katerina, 2011. "Going hybrid: An analysis of consumer purchase motivations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2217-2227, May.
  23. Yun Li, 2000. "Modeling the Choice of Working when the Set of Job Opportunities is Latent," Discussion Papers 265, Research Department of Statistics Norway.

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