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Potential Demand for Alternative Fuel Vehicles

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  • John K. Dagsvik
  • Dag G. Wetterwald
  • Rolf Aaberge

    ()
    (Statistics Norway)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the potential household demand for alternative fuel vehicles in Norway, by applying data from a stated preference survey. The alternative fuel vehicles we consider are liquid propane gas and electric powered vehicles in addition to a dual-fuel vehicle. In this survey each respondent, in a randomly selected sample, was exposed to 15 experiments. In each experiment the respondent is asked to rank three hypothetical vehicles characterized by specified attributes, according to the respondent's preferences. Several versions of a random utility model are formulated and estimated. They include the ordered logit model and a model with preferences that are correlated across experiments. The model is applied to predict changes in demand resulting from price changes, and to assess the willingness to pay for alternative fuel vechicles.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 165.

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Date of creation: Feb 1996
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:165

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Related research

Keywords: Stated preference; random utility; alternative fuel vehicles; ordered logit model; serially dependent preferences.;

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References

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  1. Hensher, David A., 1982. "Functional measurement, individual preference and discrete-choice modelling: Theory and application," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 323-335, December.
  2. Calfee, John E., 1985. "Estimating the demand for electric automobiles using fully disaggregated probabilistic choice analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 287-301, August.
  3. Beggs, S. & Cardell, S. & Hausman, J., 1981. "Assessing the potential demand for electric cars," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, September.
  4. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1j6814b3, University of California Transportation Center.
  5. Mannering, Fred L. & Train, Kenneth, 1985. "Recent directions in automobile demand modeling," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 265-274, August.
  6. Dagsvik, J.K., 1995. "The Structure of Intertemporal Models for Myopic Discrete Choice with Random Preferences," Memorandum 11/1995, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  7. John K. Dagsvik & Dag G. Wetterwald & Rolf Aaberge, 1996. "Potential Demand for Alternative Fuel Vehicles," Discussion Papers 165, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  8. Dagsvik, John K., 1988. "Markov chains generated by maximizing components of multidimensional extremal processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 31-45, April.
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