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Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns

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  • Brownstone, David
  • Train, Kenneth

Abstract

We describe and apply choice models, including generalizations of logit called 'mixed logits,' that do not exhibit the restrictive 'independence from irrelevant alternatives' property and can approximate any substitution pattern. The models are estimated on data from a stated-preference survey that elicited customers' preferences among gas, electric, methanol, and CNG vehicles with various attributes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 89 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (November)
Pages: 109-129

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:89:y:1998:i:1-2:p:109-129

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S & Golob, Thomas F & Ren, Weiping, 1996. "A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3sm7w9zk, University of California Transportation Center.
  2. David Revelt & Kenneth Train, 1998. "Mixed Logit With Repeated Choices: Households' Choices Of Appliance Efficiency Level," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 647-657, November.
  3. Kenneth Train, . "Simulation Methods for Probit and Related Models Based on Convenient Error Partitioning," Working Papers _009, University of California at Berkeley, Econometrics Laboratory Software Archive.
  4. Stern, Steven, 1992. "A Method for Smoothing Simulated Moments of Discrete Probabilities in Multinomial Probit Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 943-52, July.
  5. Lee, L-F., 1990. "On Efficiency of Methods of Simulated Moments and Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Discrete Response Models," Papers, Minnesota - Center for Economic Research 260, Minnesota - Center for Economic Research.
  6. Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S. & Golob, Thomas F. & Ren, Weiping, 1996. "A Transaction Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0244r8g2, University of California Transportation Center.
  7. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
  8. Kenneth E. Train, 1998. "Recreation Demand Models with Taste Differences over People," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 74(2), pages 230-239.
  9. Tülin Erdem, 1996. "A Dynamic Analysis of Market Structure Based on Panel Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 359-378.
  10. McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul A, 1994. "Estimation by Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 591-608, November.
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