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A forecast of household ownership and use of alternative fuel vehicles: A multiple discrete-continuous choice approach

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  • Ahn, Jiwoon
  • Jeong, Gicheol
  • Kim, Yeonbae
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    Abstract

    The paper analyzes how adding alternative fuel passenger cars to the market will affect patterns in demand for passenger cars. We use conjoint analysis and a multiple discrete-continuous choice model to estimate consumer preferences regarding alternative fuel vehicles, and based on the estimates we conduct a simulation to analyze changing rates of ownership and use of variously fueled passenger cars under the effect of the introduction of alternative fuel passenger cars. In addition, we estimate changes in overall fuel consumption and the emission of pollutants. The results show that gasoline-fueled cars will still be most consumers' first choice, but alternative fuel passenger cars will nevertheless compete and offer a substitute for the purchase and use of gasoline-fueled or diesel-fueled cars. Finally, results show that adding alternative fuel cars to the market would effectively lower gasoline and diesel fuel consumption and the emission of pollutants.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V7G-4PYGVY5-1/2/ac3912951f7ed7a1b9429d894321ffe5
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 2091-2104

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:2091-2104

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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    References

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    2. John Calfee & Clifford Winston & Randolph Stempski, 2001. "Econometric Issues In Estimating Consumer Preferences From Stated Preference Data: A Case Study Of The Value Of Automobile Travel Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 699-707, November.
    3. Roe, Brian & Boyle, Kevin J. & Teisl, Mario F., 1996. "Using Conjoint Analysis to Derive Estimates of Compensating Variation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 145-159, September.
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    12. Bhat, Chandra R., 2005. "A multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model: formulation and application to discretionary time-use decisions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 679-707, September.
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    15. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sen, Sudeshna, 2006. "Household vehicle type holdings and usage: an application of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-53, January.
    16. Chiang, Jeongwen & Chib, Siddhartha & Narasimhan, Chakravarthi, 1998. "Markov chain Monte Carlo and models of consideration set and parameter heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 223-248, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Yetano Roche, María & Mourato, Susana & Fischedick, Manfred & Pietzner, Katja & Viebahn, Peter, 2010. "Public attitudes towards and demand for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles: A review of the evidence and methodological implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5301-5310, October.
    2. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Rietveld, Piet & van Ommeren, Jos N., 2013. "Consumer valuation of changes in driving range: A meta-analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-45.
    3. Koo, Yoonmo & Kim, Chang Seob & Hong, Junhee & Choi, Ie-Jung & Lee, Jongsu, 2012. "Consumer preferences for automobile energy-efficiency grades," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 446-451.
    4. Hoen, Anco & Koetse, Mark J., 2014. "A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-215.
    5. Zhang, Yong & Yu, Yifeng & Zou, Bai, 2011. "Analyzing public awareness and acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles in China: The case of EV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7015-7024.
    6. Lüthi, Sonja & Wüstenhagen, Rolf, 2012. "The price of policy risk — Empirical insights from choice experiments with European photovoltaic project developers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1001-1011.
    7. Jérôme Massiani, 2013. "The use of Stated Preferences to forecast alternative fuel vehicles market diffusion: Comparisons with other methods and proposal for a Synthetic Utility Function," Working Papers 2013:12, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    8. Kley, Fabian & Lerch, Christian & Dallinger, David, 2011. "New business models for electric cars--A holistic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3392-3403, June.
    9. Alexandros Dimitropoulos & Piet Rietveld & Jos N. van Ommeren, 2011. "Consumer Valuation of Driving Range: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-133/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Ozaki, Ritsuko & Sevastyanova, Katerina, 2011. "Going hybrid: An analysis of consumer purchase motivations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2217-2227, May.
    11. Andreas Ziegler, 2010. "Individual Characteristics and Stated Preferences for Alternative Energy Sources and Propulsion Technologies in Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Analysis," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 10/125, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    12. Sikder, Sujan & Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof, 2013. "The benefits of allowing heteroscedastic stochastic distributions in multiple discrete-continuous choice models," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 39-56.
    13. Jérôme Massiani, 2013. "SP surveys for electric and alternative fuel vehicles: are we doing the right thing?," Working Papers 2013_01, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    14. Alexandros Dimitropoulos & Piet Rietveld & Jos N. van Ommeren, 2011. "Consumer Valuation of Driving Range: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-133/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Ziegler, Andreas, 2012. "Individual characteristics and stated preferences for alternative energy sources and propulsion technologies in vehicles: A discrete choice analysis for Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1372-1385.
    16. Takanori Ida & Kayo Murakami & Makoto Tanaka, 2012. "Keys to Smart Home Diffusion: A Stated Preference Analysis of Smart Meters, Photovoltaic Generation, and Electric/Hybrid Vehicles," Discussion papers e-11-011, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    17. Adrián Saldarriaga-Isaza, C. & Vergara, Carlos, 2009. "Who switches to hybrids? A study of a fuel conversion program in Colombia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 572-579, June.
    18. Castro, Marisol & Bhat, Chandra R. & Pendyala, Ram M. & Jara-Díaz, Sergio R., 2012. "Accommodating multiple constraints in the multiple discrete–continuous extreme value (MDCEV) choice model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 729-743.
    19. Greiner, Romy & Bliemer, Michiel & Ballweg, Julie, 2014. "Design considerations of a choice experiment to estimate likely participation by north Australian pastoralists in contractual biodiversity conservation," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 34-45.

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