Some statistical investigations on the nature and dynamics of electricity prices
AbstractThis work analyzes the log-returns of daily electricity prices from the NordPool day-ahead market. We study both the unconditional growth rates distribution and the distribution of residual shocks obtained with a non-parametric filtering procedure based on the Cholesky factor algorithm. We show that, even if the Subbotin family of distributions is able to describe the empirical observations in both cases, the Subbotin fit obtained for the unconditional growth rates and for the residual shocks reveal significant differences. Indeed, the sequence of log-returns can be described as the outcome of an aggregation of Laplace-distributed shocks with time-dependent volatility. We find that the standard deviation of shocks scales as a power law of the initial price level, with scaling exponent around -1. Moreover, the analysis of the empirical density of shocks, conditional on the price level, shows a strong relationship of the Subbotin fit with the latter. We conclude that the unconditional growth rates distribution is the superposition of shocks distributions characterized by decreasing volatility and fat-tailedness with respect to the price level.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.
Volume (Year): 355 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/
Electricity markets; Subbotin distribution; Laplace distribution; Scaling;
Other versions of this item:
- Giulio Bottazzi & Sandro Sapio & Angelo Secchi, 2004. "Some Statistical Investigations on the Nature and Dynamics of Electricity Prices," LEM Papers Series 2004/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Berkowitz, J. & Birgean, I. & Kilian, L., 1999.
"On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series,"
99-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Byström, Hans, 2001.
"Extreme Value Theory and Extremely Large Electricity Price Changes,"
2001:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2005. "Extreme value theory and extremely large electricity price changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-55.
- Alvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002.
"Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence,"
Economics Working Papers
we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
- Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000.
"Recent developments in bootstrapping time series,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1997.
"Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1997-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Diebold, Francis X & Ohanian, Lee E & Berkowitz, Jeremy, 1998. "Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 433-51, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1995. "Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1998. "Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data," Staff Report 243, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1997. "Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data," Working Papers 97-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik Morch & Harbord, David, 1993.
"Spot Market Competition in the UK Electricity Industry,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 531-46, May.
- Von der Fehr, N.H.M. & Harbord, D., 1992. "Spot Market Competition in the UK Electricity Industry," Memorandum 09/1992, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Bottazzi, Giulio & Secchi, Angelo, 2003. "Why are distributions of firm growth rates tent-shaped?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 415-420, September.
- Youngki Lee & Luis A. N. Amaral & David Canning & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Universal features in the growth dynamics of complex organizations," Papers cond-mat/9804100, arXiv.org.
- Merton, Robert C., 1975.
"Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous,"
787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
- Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
- Sandro Sapio, 2004.
"Markets Design, Bidding Rules, and Long Memory in Electricity Prices,"
Revue d'Économie Industrielle,
Programme National Persée, vol. 107(1), pages 151-170.
- Sandro Sapio, 2004. "Market Design, Bidding Rules, and Long Memory in Electricity Prices," LEM Papers Series 2004/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- S. James Press, 1967. "A Compound Events Model for Security Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 317.
- Weron, R & Bierbrauer, M & Trück, S, 2004.
"Modeling electricity prices: jump diffusion and regime switching,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 39-48.
- Rafal Weron & Michael Bierbrauer & Stefan Trück, 2003. "Modeling electricity prices: jump diffusion and regime switching," HSC Research Reports HSC/03/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Niels Haldrup & Morten O. Nielsen, 2004.
"A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices,"
Economics Working Papers
2004-2, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
- Joskow, Paul L, 1996. "Introducing Competition into Regulated Network Industries: From Hierarchies to Markets in Electricity," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 341-82.
- Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
- Lucia, Julio J. & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2000. "Electricity prices and power derivatives: Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt12w8v7jj, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Sandro Sapio, 2006. "An Empirically Based Model of the Supply Schedule in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets," LEM Papers Series 2006/12, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011.
"Evolutionary Model of Non-Durable Markets,"
50531, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
- Joachim Kaldasch, 2013.
"Evolutionary Model of a Anonymous Consumer Durable Market,"
- Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "Evolutionary model of an anonymous consumer durable market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(14), pages 2692-2715.
- Andrea Petrella & Sandro Sapio, 2010. "No PUN intended: A time series analysis of the Italian day-ahead electricity prices," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/03, European University Institute.
- Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2007. "Heavy tails and electricity prices: Do time series models with non-Gaussian noise forecast better than their Gaussian counterparts?," MPRA Paper 2292, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2007.
- Tomasz Kozubowski & Saralees Nadarajah, 2010. "Multitude of Laplace distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 127-148, January.
- Joachim Kaldasch, 2012. "Evolutionäre Diffusion und der Produktlebenszyklus von Gebrauchsgütern," EconStor Preprints 59748, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
- Weron, Rafal, 2009. "Forecasting wholesale electricity prices: A review of time series models," MPRA Paper 21299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matteo Manera & Massimiliano Serati & Michele Plotegher, 2008.
"Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal,"
2008.9, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Massimiliano Serati & Matteo Manera & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modelling electricity prices: from the state of the art to a draft of a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 210, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
- Joachim Kaldasch, 2012.
"Evolutionary Model of the Growth and Size of Firms,"
- Kaldasch, Joachim, 2012. "Evolutionary model of the growth and size of firms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(14), pages 3751-3769.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.