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Some Statistical Investigations on the Nature and Dynamics of Electricity Prices

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  • Giulio Bottazzi
  • Sandro Sapio
  • Angelo Secchi

Abstract

It is widely accepted that in liberalized electricity markets log-returns display fat-tailed densities. Besides qualitative assessments, so far precise characterizations of the shape of the distribution have been seldom provided. In this work, we characterize the conditional and unconditional probability density functions of daily electricity log-returns, and of the underlying shocks from the NordPool market, for each of the 24 hours, through a very flexible and general family of distributions, namely the Subbotin family. Our study contributes with novel results in the field. First, we show that price fluctuations in electricity markets are additive in nature. We do this by exploiting a scaling relationship between price level and volatility, which is in turn a new result in the electricity markets literature. Second, in line with recent studies, we uncover the existence of multiple regimes in price dynamics, and we characterize the distributional shape for each of them. Interestingly, the shocks behind electricity price dynamics are approximately Laplace if one conditions on low price levels, and closer to a Gaussian in correspondence of high initial price levels. These results are at variance with the evidence from financial markets. The peculiar non-storable nature of electricity, and the varying strength of correlations between bidding behaviors at different load levels are suggested as possible key factors behind the specificities of electricity markets outcomes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2004/13.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2004/13

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Keywords: Electricity Markets; Subbotin Distribution; Laplace Distribution; Additive Process; Scaling;

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  5. Brousseau, Eric & Glachant, Jean-Michel, 2002. "The economics of contracts: Theories and applications," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/12331, Paris Dauphine University.
  6. Rafal Weron & Michael Bierbrauer & Stefan Trück, 2003. "Modeling electricity prices: jump diffusion and regime switching," HSC Research Reports HSC/03/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  7. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
  8. Sandro Sapio, 2004. "Market Design, Bidding Rules, and Long Memory in Electricity Prices," LEM Papers Series 2004/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  9. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
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  12. Byström, Hans, 2001. "Extreme Value Theory and Extremely Large Electricity Price Changes," Working Papers 2001:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  13. von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik Morch & Harbord, David, 1993. "Spot Market Competition in the UK Electricity Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 531-46, May.
  14. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
  15. Bottazzi, Giulio & Secchi, Angelo, 2003. "Why are distributions of firm growth rates tent-shaped?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 415-420, September.
  16. Joskow, Paul L, 1996. "Introducing Competition into Regulated Network Industries: From Hierarchies to Markets in Electricity," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 341-82.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2012. "Evolutionary model of the growth and size of firms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(14), pages 3751-3769.
  2. Andrea Petrella & Sandro Sapio, 2010. "No PUN intended: A time series analysis of the Italian day-ahead electricity prices," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/03, European University Institute.
  3. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "Evolutionary model of an anonymous consumer durable market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(14), pages 2692-2715.
  4. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "Evolutionary Model of Non-Durable Markets," MPRA Paper 33743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Sandro Sapio, 2006. "An Empirically Based Model of the Supply Schedule in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets," LEM Papers Series 2006/12, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  6. Weron, Rafal, 2009. "Forecasting wholesale electricity prices: A review of time series models," MPRA Paper 21299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Massimiliano Serati & Matteo Manera & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modelling electricity prices: from the state of the art to a draft of a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 210, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
  8. Joachim Kaldasch, 2012. "Evolutionäre Diffusion und der Produktlebenszyklus von Gebrauchsgütern," EconStor Preprints 59748, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
  9. Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2007. "Heavy tails and electricity prices: Do time series models with non-Gaussian noise forecast better than their Gaussian counterparts?," MPRA Paper 2292, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2007.
  10. Tomasz Kozubowski & Saralees Nadarajah, 2010. "Multitude of Laplace distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 127-148, January.

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