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Volatility-price relationships in power exchanges: A demand-supply analysis

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Sandro Sapio

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Abstract

The evidence of volatility-price dependence observed in previous works (Karakatsani and Bunn 2004; Bottazzi, Sapio and Secchi 2005; Simonsen 2005) suggests that there is more to volatility than simply spikes. Volatility is found to be positively correlated with the lagged price level in settings where market power is likely to be particularly strong (UK on-peak sessions, the CalPX). Negative correlation is instead observed in markets considered to be fairly competitive, such as the NordPool. Prompted by these observations, this paper aims to understand whether volatility-price patterns can be mapped into different degrees of market competition, as the evidence seems to suggest. Price fluctuations are modelled as outcomes of dynamics in both sides of the market - demand and supply, which in turn respond to shocks to the underlying preference and technology fundamentals. Negative volatility-price dependence arises if the market dynamics is accounted for by common shocks which affect valuations uniformly. Positive dependence is related to the impact of asymmetric shocks. The paper shows that under certain conditions, these volatility-price patterns can be used to identify the exercise of market power. Identification is however ruled out if all shocks affect valuations uniformly.

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Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2008/07.

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Date of creation: 11 Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2008/07

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Keywords: Electricity Market Volatility Supply Curve Demand Curve Fundamentals Shocks

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  1. Li, Xianguo, 2005. "Diversification and localization of energy systems for sustainable development and energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(17), pages 2237-2243, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik Morch & Harbord, David, 1993. "Spot Market Competition in the UK Electricity Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 531-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Andrew C. Worthington & Adam Kay-Spratley & Helen Higgs, 2002. "Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: A multivariate GARCH analysis," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 114, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  7. Postali, Fernando A.S. & Picchetti, Paulo, 2006. "Geometric Brownian Motion and structural breaks in oil prices: A quantitative analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 506-522, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Newbery, D., 2002. "Issues and Options for Restructuring Electricity Supply Industries," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0210, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  9. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Rafal Weron, 2005. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options," Econometrics 0502003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Roques, F.A. & Nuttall, W.J. & Newbery, D.M. & de Neufville, R., 2005. "Nuclear Power: a Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0555, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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