IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v70y2021ics0927537121000178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Some young people have all the luck! The duration dependence of the school-to-work transition in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Pastore, Francesco
  • Quintano, Claudio
  • Rocca, Antonella

Abstract

This paper provides sound, comparative empirical evidence on the duration of the school-to-work-transition (STWT) across 14 European countries using information available in the EU-SILC database. We define the duration of the STWT as the time needed for young people to secure their first regular job (at least six months) after completing their studies. We highlight the existence of dramatic inequality both across and within countries, namely by education level. The duration ranges on average from 13 (UK) to 34 months (Italy) and the gap still remains after 10 years. We then study the determinants of the duration by means of parametric survival models, with the distribution of hazard rates for finding a regular job being proxied by a Weibull distribution, which reveals the best fit based on a number of statistical tests. We test for omitted heterogeneity by means of the frailty survival model and find consistent evidence of positive duration dependence, suggesting that, as times passes, young people increase their hazard rate for finding a regular job as soon as they gain work experience and accumulate work-related competences.

Suggested Citation

  • Pastore, Francesco & Quintano, Claudio & Rocca, Antonella, 2021. "Some young people have all the luck! The duration dependence of the school-to-work transition in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:70:y:2021:i:c:s0927537121000178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2021.101982
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537121000178
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.labeco.2021.101982?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Ichino & Fabrizia Mealli & Tommaso Nannicini, 2008. "From temporary help jobs to permanent employment: what can we learn from matching estimators and their sensitivity?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 305-327.
    2. Alan Manning & Joanna Swaffield, 2008. "The gender gap in early-career wage growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 983-1024, July.
    3. James Albrecht & Susan Vroman, 2002. "A Matching Model with Endogenous Skill Requirements," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(1), pages 283-305, February.
    4. Francesco Pastore, 2015. "The Youth Experience Gap," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-10196-5, September.
    5. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2019. "Delayed Graduation and University Dropout: A Review of Theoretical Approaches," IZA Discussion Papers 12601, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Wolfgang Franz & Joachim Inkmann & Winfried Pohlmeier & Volker Zimmermann, 2000. "Young and Out in Germany (On Youths? Chances of Labor Market Entrance in Germany)," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 381-426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. J. Heckman & B. Singer, 1984. "The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241.
    8. repec:lan:wpaper:4467 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Samuel Bentolila & Juan Dolado & Juan Jimeno, 2012. "Reforming an insider-outsider labor market: the Spanish experience," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, December.
    10. Francesco Pastore & Claudio Quintano & Antonella Rocca, 2020. "Stuck at a crossroads? The duration of the Italian school-to-work transition," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(3), pages 442-469, September.
    11. van Ours, J. C. & Ridder, G., 1995. "Job matching and job competition: Are lower educated workers at the back of job queues?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1717-1731, December.
    12. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Antonella Rocca & Paolo Mazzocchi & Claudio Quintano, 2020. "Being NEET in Europe Before and After the Economic Crisis: An Analysis of the Micro and Macro Determinants," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 991-1024, June.
    13. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Francesco Pastore, 2007. "The Youth Experience Gap: Explaining Differences across EU Countries," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 41/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    14. Hadjivassiliou, Kari P & Tassinari, Arianna & Eichhorst, Werner & Wozny, Florian, 2016. "Assessing the Performance of School-to-Work Transition Regimes in the EU," IZA Discussion Papers 10301, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Irene Brunetti & Lorenzo Corsini, 2019. "School-to-work transition and vocational education: a comparison across Europe," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(8), pages 1411-1437, July.
    16. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Till von Wachter, 2008. "Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Germany: Evidence and Interpretation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 592-598, August.
    17. Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Biavaschi, Costanza & Eichhorst, Werner & Giulietti, Corrado & Kendzia, Michael J. & Muravyev, Alexander & Pieters, Janneke & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria & Schmidl, Ricarda, 2013. "Youth Unemployment and Vocational Training," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 9(1–2), pages 1-157, December.
    18. William R. Johnson, 1978. "A Theory of Job Shopping," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 261-277.
    19. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2008. "Transitions between unemployment and low pay," Research in Labor Economics, in: Work, Earnings and Other Aspects of the Employment Relation, pages 57-79, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    20. L. Biggeri & M. Bini & L. Grilli, 2001. "The transition from university to work: a multilevel approach to the analysis of the time to obtain the first job," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 293-305.
    21. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    22. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Dynamics of Youth Unemployment," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 199-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Hwei-Lin Chuang, 1999. "Estimating the determinants of the unemployment duration for college graduates in Taiwan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 677-681.
    24. Kupets, Olga, 2016. "Education-job mismatch in Ukraine: Too many people with tertiary education or too many jobs for low-skilled?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 125-147.
    25. Altonji, Joseph G, 1993. "The Demand for and Return to Education When Education Outcomes Are Uncertain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 48-83, January.
    26. Chiswick, Barry R, 1991. "Speaking, Reading, and Earnings among Low-Skilled Immigrants," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 149-170, April.
    27. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291, Decembrie.
    28. Garcia-Mainar, Inmaculada & Montuenga, Victor M., 2019. "The signalling role of over-education and qualifications mismatch," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 99-119.
    29. Dolado, Juan J. & Felgueroso, Florentino & Jimeno, Juan F., 2000. "Youth labour markets in Spain: Education, training, and crowding-out," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 943-956, May.
    30. Werner Eichhorst & Núria Rodríguez-Planas & Ricarda Schmidl & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2015. "A Road Map to Vocational Education and Training in Industrialized Countries," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 68(2), pages 314-337, March.
    31. Samuel Bentolila & Juan J. Dolado, 1994. "Labour Flexibility and Wages: Lessons from Spain," Working Papers wp1994_9406, CEMFI.
    32. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-1266, September.
    33. Francesco Pastore, 2018. "Why is youth unemployment so high and different across countries?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 420-420, January.
    34. repec:lan:wpaper:4769 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    36. Joachim Vogel, 2002. "European Welfare regimes and the transition to adulthood: A comparative and longitudinal perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 275-299, September.
    37. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Pastore, 2023. "Covid-19 and the youth-to-adult unemployment gap," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 500-500, January.
    2. Esposito, Piero & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2022. "Educational mismatch and labour market transitions in Italy: Is there an unemployment trap?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 138-155.
    3. Francisco Simões & Jale Tosun & Antonella Rocca, 2022. "Determinants of Job-Finding Intentions Among Young Adults from 11 European Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(2), pages 623-648, November.
    4. Berigel, Muhammet & Boztaş, Gizem Dilan & Rocca, Antonella & Neagu, Gabriela, 2023. "A model for predicting determinants factors for NEETs rates: Support for the decision-makers," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    5. Maria Diacon & Liena Hačatrjana & Victor Juc & Victoria Lisnic & Antonella Rocca, 2023. "National Level Support Programs for Youth in Relation to Effective School-to-Work Transition: Examples of Italy, Moldova, and Latvia," Societies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, September.
    6. Davide Fiaschi & Cristina Tealdi, 2022. "Young people between education and the labour market during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(7), pages 1719-1757, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Pastore & Claudio Quintano & Antonella Rocca, 2020. "Stuck at a crossroads? The duration of the Italian school-to-work transition," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(3), pages 442-469, September.
    2. Francesco Pastore & Claudio Quintano & Antonella Rocca, 2022. "The duration of the school-to-work transition in Italy and in other European countries: a flexible baseline hazard interpretation," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(7), pages 1579-1600, January.
    3. Berigel, Muhammet & Boztaş, Gizem Dilan & Rocca, Antonella & Neagu, Gabriela, 2023. "A model for predicting determinants factors for NEETs rates: Support for the decision-makers," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    4. Corseuil, Carlos Henrique & Foguel, Miguel N. & Gonzaga, Gustavo, 2019. "Apprenticeship as a stepping stone to better jobs: Evidence from Brazilian matched employer-employee data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 177-194.
    5. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    6. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Francesco Pastore, 2009. "Le cause del(l') (in)successo lavorativo dei giovani," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 3, pages 107-107.
    7. Dario Pozzoli, 2009. "The Transition to Work for Italian University Graduates," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(1), pages 131-169, March.
    8. Pastore, Francesco, 2017. "Why so slow? The School-to-Work Transition in Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 65, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Antonella Rocca & Paolo Mazzocchi & Claudio Quintano, 2020. "Being NEET in Europe Before and After the Economic Crisis: An Analysis of the Micro and Macro Determinants," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 991-1024, June.
    10. Polona Domadenik & Dasa Farcnik, 2011. "Did Bologna reform improve school-to-work transition of graduates? Evidence from Slovenia," Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación volume 6, in: Antonio Caparrós Ruiz (ed.), Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación 6, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 40, pages 649-665, Asociación de Economía de la Educación.
    11. Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal & Pastore, Francesco, 2020. "School to Work Transition and Macroeconomic Conditions in the Turkish Economy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 730, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Elvira Ciociano & Sergio Destefanis, 2017. "Youth Labour-Market Performance, Institutions and Vet Systems: A Cross-Country Analysis," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(1), pages 39-69, March.
    13. Léné, Alexandre, 2011. "Occupational downgrading and bumping down: The combined effects of education and experience," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 257-269, April.
    14. Lisa M. Lynch, 1986. "The Youth Labor Market in the 80s: Determinants of Re-Employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," NBER Working Papers 2021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Aina, Carmen & Brunetti, Irene & Mussida, Chiara & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2021. "Even more discouraged? The NEET generation at the age of COVID-19," GLO Discussion Paper Series 863, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Pieter Serneels, 2004. "The Nature of Unemployment in Urban Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Amparo Nagore García & Arthur van Soest, 2017. "New job matches and their stability before and during the crisis," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(7), pages 975-995, October.
    18. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Francesco Pastore, 2018. "Overeducation at a Glance. Determinants and Wage Effects of the Educational Mismatch Based on AlmaLaurea Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 999-1032, June.
    19. Julen Esteban-Pretel & Elisa Faraglia, 2005. "Monetary Shocks in a Model with Loss of Skills," 2005 Meeting Papers 328, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Francesco Pastore & Marco Pompili, 2020. "Assessing the Impact of Off-the-Job and On-the-Job Training on Employment Outcomes: A Counterfactual Evaluation of the PIPOL Program," Evaluation Review, , vol. 44(2-3), pages 145-184, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    School-to-work transition; Duration; Survival analysis; Hazard rate; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:70:y:2021:i:c:s0927537121000178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.