IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Youth Labor Market in the 80s: Determinants of Re-Employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women

Author

Listed:
  • Lisa M. Lynch

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the determinants of re-employment probabilities for young workers in the U.S. Using data from the new National Longitudinal Survey youth cohort a model is developed to analyze the transition probabilities from nonemployment to employment. The key factors examined include personal characteristics, unemployment income, local demand conditions, and duration dependence. There are significant differences between the labor market experiences of whites and nonwhites, and males and females. High school dropouts have many more difficulties in the labor market than those who remain in school longer and/or receive other types of training. Local demand conditions are a strong determinant of the duration of spells of nonemployment and there appears to be strong evidence of negative duration dependence in re-employment probabilities for both young males and young females.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa M. Lynch, 1986. "The Youth Labor Market in the 80s: Determinants of Re-Employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," NBER Working Papers 2021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2021
    Note: LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert Rees & Wayne Gray, 1982. "Family Effects in Youth Employment," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 453-474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stephenson, Stanley P, Jr, 1976. "The Economics of Youth Job Search Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 104-111, February.
    3. Richard B. Freeman & David A. Wise, 1982. "The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number free82-1, July.
    4. David T. Ellwood, 1982. "Teenage Unemployment: Permanent Scars or Temporary Blemishes?," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 349-390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-283, August.
    6. Robert H. Meyer & David A. Wise, 1982. "High School Preparation and Early Labor Force Experience," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 277-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mary Corcoran, 1982. "The Employment and Wage Consequences of Teenage Women's Nonemployment," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 391-426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Linda Leighton & Jacob Mincer, 1982. "Labor Turnover and Youth Unemployment," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 235-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    10. Michael L. Wachter & Choongsoo Kim, 1979. "Time Series Changes in Youth Joblessness," NBER Working Papers 0384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Dynamics of Youth Unemployment," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 199-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lynch, Lisa M., 1985. "State dependency in youth unemployment : A lost generation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 71-84, April.
    13. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Michael L. Wachter & Choongsoo Kim, 1982. "Time Series Changes in Youth Joblessness," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 155-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 347-368, September.
    16. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-1266, September.
    17. Mortensen, Dale T, 1970. "Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 847-862, December.
    18. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    19. Flinn, C. & Heckman, J., 1982. "New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-168, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. V. Joseph Hotz & Lixin Colin Xu & Marta Tienda & Avner Ahituv, 2002. "Are There Returns To The Wages Of Young Men From Working While In School?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 221-236, May.
    2. Guy Lacroix & Marie Albertine Djuikom Tamtchouong, 2018. "Dynamic Causal Effects of Post-Migration Schooling on Labour Market Transitions," Cahiers de recherche 1802, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas A. Mroz & Timothy H. Savage, 2006. "The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
    2. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    3. Dario Pozzoli, 2009. "The Transition to Work for Italian University Graduates," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(1), pages 131-169, March.
    4. Solon, Gary R, 1985. "Work Incentive Effects of Taxing Unemployment Benefits," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 295-306, March.
    5. Mijares, John C., 1997. "Early drug use and quits and discharges among adolescent males," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458.
    6. George Neumann, 1996. "Search Models and Duration Data," Econometrics 9602008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 1996.
    7. H. J. Holzer & R. J. LaLonde, "undated". "Job Change and Job Stability among Less-Skilled Young Workers," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1191-99, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    8. V. Joseph Hotz & Lixin Colin Xu & Marta Tienda & Avner Ahituv, 2002. "Are There Returns To The Wages Of Young Men From Working While In School?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 221-236, May.
    9. repec:eee:labchp:v:2:y:1986:i:c:p:849-919 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, 2008. "Nonemployment stigma as rational herding: A field experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 30-40, January.
    11. Fernando Coloma & Bernardita Vial, 2003. "Desempleo e Inactividad Juvenil en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(119), pages 149-171.
    12. Matteo Picchio & Stefano Staffolani, 2019. "Does apprenticeship improve job opportunities? A regression discontinuity approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 23-60, January.
    13. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2013. "Scarring effects of remaining unemployed for long-term unemployed school-leavers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(4), pages 951-980, October.
    15. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
    16. Dragana Djurdjevic, 2005. "Unemployment and Under-Employment: The Case of Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(I), pages 23-70, March.
    17. Bart Cockx & Muriel Dejemeppe, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23, January.
    18. Björn Nilsson, 2019. "The School-to-Work Transition in Developing Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(5), pages 745-764, May.
    19. Ayhan Görmüş, 2019. "Long-Term Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Turkish Household Labour Force Survey," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 62(3), pages 341-359, September.
    20. Bernard Fortin & Guy Lacroix, 1997. "Welfare Benefits, Minimum Wage Rate and the Duration of Welfare Spells: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Canada," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-25, CIRANO.
    21. Vijlbrief, J.A., 1990. "The effects of unemployment insurance on the labour market," Serie Research Memoranda 0031, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.