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Realized volatility spillovers between US spot and futures during ECB news: Evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis

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  • Gkillas, Konstantinos
  • Konstantatos, Christoforos
  • Floros, Christos
  • Tsagkanos, Athanasios

Abstract

We study the simultaneity impact of the European Central Bank news on the daily realized volatility transmission mechanism (spillovers) among various US spot and futures markets. To this end, we apply a bias-corrected vector autoregressive model via Wild bootstrap simulation. We use minute-by-minute intraday data to construct daily realized volatility. We consider 429 news form the ECB as important events employing two major classifications, namely, a country classification with the highest total number of days related ECB news and a type of ECB news classification. We find that investors in futures markets react more vigorously and mainly for the ECB news that is associated with the group of EMU member states applied structural reforms. Yet, more importantly, we show that the US stock markets response heterogeneously to the ECB news, as we find key disagreements in the reactions both across the US markets and the types of ECB news studied. Such evidence is consistent with the explanation of the differential interpretation of information among market participants. From a practical point of view, we suggest that investors in the US spot market can effectively use two or more futures contracts to minimize their exposure to volatility risk associated with that news.

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  • Gkillas, Konstantinos & Konstantatos, Christoforos & Floros, Christos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2021. "Realized volatility spillovers between US spot and futures during ECB news: Evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:74:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921000491
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101706
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB news; Spot; Futures; Volatility spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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