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Bond and stock market response to unexpected dividend changes

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  • Tsai, Hui-Ju
  • Wu, Yangru

Abstract

We use comprehensive transaction data from Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine to study the response in corporate bond market to dividend announcements and compare that with the response in stock market. We find that the information content/free cash flow effect dominates the wealth transfer effect in bond market. The relationship between the magnitude of dividend changes and future profitability is weak. However, the reaction in stock and bond markets on announcement dates can be informative about the earnings one year after announcements. Additionally, the reaction of speculative-grade bonds on announcement dates is more informative about future profitability than that of investment-grade bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsai, Hui-Ju & Wu, Yangru, 2015. "Bond and stock market response to unexpected dividend changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:30:y:2015:i:c:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2014.11.001
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    5. Dimitrios I. Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2018. "Intraday realised volatility forecasting and announcements," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 88-118.
    6. Scholz, Michael & Sperlich, Stefan & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2016. "Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-96.
    7. Pugachev, Leonid, 2022. "The risk-shifting value of payout: Evidence from bank enforcement actions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Lepetit, L. & Meslier, C. & Strobel, F. & Wardhana, L., 2018. "Bank dividends, agency costs and shareholder and creditor rights," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 93-111.
    9. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Konstantatos, Christoforos & Floros, Christos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2021. "Realized volatility spillovers between US spot and futures during ECB news: Evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Jory, Surendranath & Ngo, Thanh & Susnjara, Jurica, 2017. "The effect of shareholder activism on bondholders and stockholders," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 328-344.
    11. Xiaolu Hu & Haoyi Luo & Zijin Xu & Jiang Li, 2021. "Intra‐industry spill‐over effect of default: Evidence from the Chinese bond market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4703-4740, September.
    12. Xiaoting Wei & Cameron Truong & Viet Do, 2020. "When are dividend increases bad for corporate bonds?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1295-1326, June.
    13. Ed-Dafali, Slimane & Patel, Ritesh & Iqbal, Najaf, 2023. "A bibliometric review of dividend policy literature," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Fakhrul Hasan & Umar Nawaz Kayani & Tonmoy Choudhury, 2023. "Behavioral Risk Preferences and Dividend Changes: Exploring the Linkages with Prospect Theory Through Empirical Analysis," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 24(4), pages 517-535, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dividend announcements; Institutional-sized bond trades; Earnings forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

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