Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Dividend Changes Do Not Signal Changes in Future Profitability

Contents:

Author Info

  • Gustavo Grullon

    (Rice University)

  • Roni Michaely

    (Cornell University and the Interdisciplinary Center)

  • Shlomo Benartzi

    (University of California at Los Angeles)

  • Richard H. Thaler

    (University of Chicago and the National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

One of the most important predictions of the dividend-signaling hypothesis is that dividend changes are positively correlated with future changes in profitability and earnings. Contrary to this prediction, we show that, after controlling for the well-known nonlinear patterns in the behavior of earnings, dividend changes contain no information about future earnings changes. We also show that dividend changes are negatively correlated with future changes in profitability (return on assets). Finally, we investigate whether including dividend changes improves out-of-sample earnings forecasts. We find that models that include dividend changes do not outperform those that do not include dividend changes.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?JB780502
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 78 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 1659-1682

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:78:y:2005:i:5:p:1659-1682

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Kuo, Nan-Ting & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2013. "Effects of dividend tax and signaling on firm valuation: Evidence from taxable stock dividend announcements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 157-180.
  2. Bogdan Stacescu, 2006. "Dividend Policy in Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 153-183, June.
  3. Yanzhi Wang & Sheng-Syan Chen & Yen-Ting Cheng, 2011. "Revisiting corporate dividends and seasoned equity issues," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 133-151, January.
  4. Balachandran, Balasingham & Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar & Theobald, Michael & Vidanapathirana, Berty, 2012. "Dividend reductions, the timing of dividend payments and information content," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 1232-1247.
  5. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Dividend and Corporate Taxation in an Agency Model of the Firm," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-31, August.
  6. Brockman, Paul & Unlu, Emre, 2009. "Dividend policy, creditor rights, and the agency costs of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 276-299, May.
  7. Karpavičius, Sigitas, 2014. "Dividends: Relevance, rigidity, and signaling," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 289-312.
  8. Jais, Mohamad & Abdul Karim, Bakri & Funaoka, Kenta & Abidin, Azlan Zainol, 2009. "Dividend Announcements and Stock Market Reaction," MPRA Paper 19779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Nan-Ting Kuo, 2013. "Dividend tax signaling and the pricing of future earnings: a case of taxable stock dividends," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 539-570, April.
  10. Skinner, Douglas J., 2008. "The evolving relation between earnings, dividends, and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 582-609, March.
  11. Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2013. "The dividend month premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 640-660.
  12. Fabio Braggion & Lyndon Moore, 2011. "Dividend Policies in an Unregulated Market: The London Stock Exchange, 1895--1905," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2935-2973.
  13. Fairchild, Richard & Guney, Yilmaz & Thanatawee, Yordying, 2014. "Corporate dividend policy in Thailand: Theory and evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 129-151.
  14. Louis, Henock & Robinson, Dahlia, 2005. "Do managers credibly use accruals to signal private information? Evidence from the pricing of discretionary accruals around stock splits," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 361-380, June.
  15. Joos, Peter & Plesko, George, 2004. "Costly Dividend Signaling: The Case of Loss Firms with Negative Cash Flows," Working papers Costly Dividend Signaling, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  16. Jiang, Zhan & Kim, Kenneth A. & Lie, Erik & Yang, Sean, 2013. "Share repurchases, catering, and dividend substitution," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 36-50.
  17. Neil L. Fargher & Robert A. Weigand, 2009. "Cross-sectional differences in the profits, returns and risk of firms initiating dividends," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 509-530, May.
  18. Jensen, Gerald R. & Lundstrum, Leonard L. & Miller, Robert E., 2010. "What do dividend reductions signal?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 736-747, December.
  19. Huang, Gow-Cheng & Liano, Kartono & Pan, Ming-Shiun, 2009. "The information content of stock splits," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 557-567, September.
  20. Robert A. Weigand & H. Kent Baker, 2009. "Changing perspectives on distribution policy: The evolution from dividends to share repurchase," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 479-492, May.
  21. Daniel, Naveen D. & Denis, David J. & Naveen, Lalitha, 2008. "Do firms manage earnings to meet dividend thresholds," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 2-26, March.
  22. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Ho, Kim Wai & Huang, Chia-Wei & Wang, Yanzhi, 2013. "Buyback behavior of initial public offering firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 32-42.
  23. Arturo, Ramirez Verdugo, 2004. "Dividend Signaling and Unions," MPRA Paper 2273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Oct 2006.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:78:y:2005:i:5:p:1659-1682. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Journals Division).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.