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From beef cattle to sheep under global warming? An analysis of adaptation by livestock species choice in South America

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  • Seo, S. Niggol
  • McCarl, Bruce A.
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

This paper examines how South American farmers' choices of livestock species vary across the range of climate and in turn infer from them as to what would happen under climate changes. We examine the choice of five primary species using a multinomial logit model with and without climate variability measures based on 1300 livestock farm surveys in seven countries. The results indicate that climate variables are highly significant determinants of primary species choice after controlling for soils, geography, household characteristics, and country fixed effects. We find the probability of adopting any livestock increases with warming, but decreases when it becomes too wet. The impacts of climate change would vary by species and climate scenarios. For example, under a hot and dry CCC scenario by 2060, beef cattle decrease by 3.2%, dairy cattle by 2.3%, pigs by 0.5%, and chickens by 0.9%, which is offset by a large increase in sheep by 7%. These adaptive changes vary again by country. Large changes are observed in the Andean countries. Under the hot dry scenario, dairy cattle increase in Uruguay and Argentina, but decrease elsewhere. The increase in sheep occurs mostly in the Andes mountain countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. Under a milder and wetter scenario, beef cattle choice declines in Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela, but increases in Argentina and Chile. Sheep increase in Colombia and Venezuela, but decrease in the high mountains of Chile where chickens are chosen more frequently.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

Volume (Year): 69 (2010)
Issue (Month): 12 (October)
Pages: 2486-2494

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:69:y:2010:i:12:p:2486-2494

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

Related research

Keywords: Climate change Climate variability Adaptation Livestock species choice South America;

References

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  1. Henk A. J. Moll, 2005. "Costs and benefits of livestock systems and the role of market and nonmarket relationships," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(2), pages 181-193, 03.
  2. Steiger, Carlos, 2006. "Modern Beef Production in Brazil and Argentina," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 21(2).
  3. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 109-116, August.
  4. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-417, November.
  5. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, April.
  6. S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, 03.
  7. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "Animal husbandry in Africa: Climate change impacts and adaptations," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), March.
  8. Rose, Steven K. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2008. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Stabilization and the Inevitability of Adaptation: Challenges for U.S. Agriculture," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(1).
  9. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D. & Mitchell, Glenn T., 2005. "Adjustment costs from environmental change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 468-495, November.
  10. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-11, December.
  11. Seo, S. Niggol, 2010. "Is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change? A micro-econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in African agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 32-40, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kam, S.P. & Badjeck, M.C. & Teh, L. & Teh, L. & Tran, N., 2012. "Autonomous adaptation to climate change by shrimp and catfish farmers in Vietnam’s Mekong River delta," Working Papers, The WorldFish Center, number 40061.
  2. Yuquan Zhang & Amy Hagerman & Bruce McCarl, 2013. "Influence of climate factors on spatial distribution of Texas cattle breeds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 183-195, May.
  3. Seo, S. Niggol, 2011. "An analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 825-834, February.
  4. Jianhong Mu & Bruce McCarl & Anne Wein, 2013. "Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 713-730, August.
  5. Kim, Chung-Sil & Jung, Hye-Kyung & Lee, Sang-Ho & Park, Soo-Young & Takei, Atsuo, 2012. "An Analysis on Determinants of Farmers´ Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 35(2), July.
  6. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.
  7. S. Seo, 2013. "Refining spatial resolution and spillovers of a micro-econometric analysis of adapting portfolios to climate change using the global positioning system," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(7), pages 1019-1034, October.

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