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Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S

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  • Jianhong Mu
  • Bruce McCarl
  • Anne Wein

Abstract

This paper examines possible adaptations to climate change in terms of pasture and crop land use and stocking rate in the United States (U.S.). Using Agricultural Census and climate data in a statistical model, we find that as temperature and precipitation increases agricultural commodity producers respond by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. In addition, cattle stocking rate decreases as the summer Temperature-humidity Index (THI) increases and summer precipitation decreases. Using the statistical model with climate data from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), we project that land use shifts from cropping to grazing and the stocking rate declines, and these adaptations are more pronounced in the central and the southeast regions of the U.S. Controlling for other farm production variables, crop land decreases by 6 % and pasture land increases by 33 % from the baseline. Correspondingly, the associated economic impact due to adaptation is around −14 and 29 million dollars to crop producers and pasture producers by the end of this century, respectively. The national and regional results have implications for farm programs and subsidy policies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Jianhong Mu & Bruce McCarl & Anne Wein, 2013. "Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 713-730, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:6:p:713-730
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9384-4
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    5. Beach, Robert & Zhang, Yuquan & Baker, Justin & Hagerman, Amy & McCarl, Bruce, 2015. "Implications of Climate Change on Regional Livestock Production in the United States," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211207, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Jianhong E. Mu & John M. Antle & John T. Abatzoglou, 2019. "Representative agricultural pathways, climate change, and agricultural land uses: an application to the Pacific Northwest of the USA," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 819-837, June.
    7. Fabio Gaetano Santeramo & Dragan Miljkovic & Emilia Lamonaca, 2021. "Agri-food trade and climate change," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 23(1), pages 1-18.
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    9. Kan, Iddo & Reznik, Ami & Kaminski, Jonathan & Kimhi, Ayal, 2023. "The impacts of climate change on cropland allocation, crop production, output prices and social welfare in Israel: A structural econometric framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. de Frutos Cachorro, Julia & Gobin, Anne & Buysse, Jeroen, 2018. "Farm-level adaptation to climate change: The case of the Loam region in Belgium," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 164-176.
    11. Gaurav Arora & Hongli Feng & Christopher J. Anderson & David A. Hennessy, 2020. "Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 221-236, March.
    12. Randrianarisoa, Laingo M. & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Adaptation to climate change effects and competition between ports: Invest now or later?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 279-322.
    13. Meiyappan, Prasanth & Dalton, Michael & O’Neill, Brian C. & Jain, Atul K., 2014. "Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 152-174.
    14. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn & Stephan, Dietrich & Gassmann, Franziska, 2021. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Adaptation in Agriculture: Evidence from Cropping Patterns of Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315056, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Chonabayashi, Shun, 2014. "Accounting for Land Use Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170710, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Etwire, Prince Maxwell, 2020. "The impact of climate change on farming system selection in Ghana," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    17. Mu, Jianhong E. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Sleeter, Benjamin & Abatzoglou, John T. & Zhang, Hongliang, 2018. "Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 392-401.

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