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Adapting to Climate Change Mosaically: An Analysis of African Livestock Management by Agro-Ecological Zones

Author

Listed:
  • Seo S. Niggol

    (Basque Center for Climate Change/World Bank)

  • Mendelsohn Robert

    (Yale University)

  • Dinar Ariel

    (University of California, Riverside)

  • Kurukulasuriya Pradeep

    (United Nations Development Program)

Abstract

This paper examines African livestock management across Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) to learn how they would adapt to climate change in the coming century. We analyze farm level decisions to own livestock and to choose a primary livestock species using logit models with and without country fixed effects or AEZ fixed effects. With a hot dry scenario, the results indicate that livestock ownership will increase slightly across all of Africa, but especially in West Africa and high elevation AEZs. Dairy cattle will decrease in semi-arid regions, sheep will increase in lowlands, and rearing chickens will increase at high elevations. On the other hand, if climate becomes wetter, livestock ownership will fall dramatically in lowlands and high elevation moist AEZs. Beef cattle will increase and sheep will fall in dry AEZs, dairy cattle will fall precipitously and goats will rise in moist AEZs, and chickens will increase at high elevations but fall at mid elevations. Therefore, adaptation measures should be tailored to a specific AEZ.

Suggested Citation

  • Seo S. Niggol & Mendelsohn Robert & Dinar Ariel & Kurukulasuriya Pradeep, 2009. "Adapting to Climate Change Mosaically: An Analysis of African Livestock Management by Agro-Ecological Zones," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-37, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:9:y:2009:i:2:n:4
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1682.1955
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    Cited by:

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    2. Acosta, Alejandro & Nicolli, Francesco & Karfakis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Coping with climate shocks: The complex role of livestock portfolios," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:130-138 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Barrett, Christopher B. & Santos, Paulo, 2014. "The impact of changing rainfall variability on resource-dependent wealth dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 48-54.
    5. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2013. "How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 743-766.
    6. Seo, S. Niggol, 2010. "Managing forests, livestock, and crops under global warming: a micro-econometric analysis of land use changes in Africa," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 1-20.
    7. Jianhong Mu & Bruce McCarl & Anne Wein, 2013. "Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 713-730, August.
    8. Seo, S. Niggol, 2010. "Is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change? A micro-econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in African agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 32-40, February.
    9. S. Niggol Seo, 2010. "Keys to Economics of Global Warming: A Critique of the Dismal Theorem," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 130-138.
    10. Otieno, Jackson & Muchapondwa, Edwin & Ntuli, Herbert, 2023. "The odds of South African agriculture using wildlife ranching to adapt to climate change," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 18(1), May.
    11. Seo, S. Niggol & McCarl, Bruce A. & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2010. "From beef cattle to sheep under global warming? An analysis of adaptation by livestock species choice in South America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2486-2494, October.
    12. Yuquan Zhang & Amy Hagerman & Bruce McCarl, 2013. "Influence of climate factors on spatial distribution of Texas cattle breeds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 183-195, May.

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