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Differential adaptation strategies by agro-ecological zones in African livestock management

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Author Info

  • Seo, S. Niggol
  • Mendelsohn, Robert
  • Dinar, Ariel
  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep

Abstract

This paper examines how farmers have adapted their livestock operation to the current climate in each agro-ecological zone in Africa. The authors examine how climate has affected the farmer's choice to raise livestock or not and the choice of animal species. To measure adaptation, the analysis regresses the farmer's choice on climate, soil, water flow, and socio-economic variables. The findings show that climate does in fact affect the farmer's decision about whether to raise livestock and the species. The paper also simulates how future climates may alter these decisions using forecasts from climate models and the estimated model. With a hot dry scenario, livestock ownership will increase slightly across all of Africa, but especially in West Africa and high elevation agro-ecological zones. Dairy cattle will decrease in semi-arid regions, sheep will increase in the lowlands, and chickens will increase at high elevations. With a mild and wet scenario, however, livestock adoption will fall dramatically in lowland and high latitude moist agro-ecological zones. Beef cattle will increase and sheep will fall in dry zones, dairy cattle will fall precipitously and goats will rise in moist zones, and chickens will increase at high elevations but fall at mid elevations. Livestock adaptations depend on the climate scenario and will vary across the landscape. Agro-ecological zones are a useful way to capture how these changes differ from place to place.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4601.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4601

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Related research

Keywords: Livestock&Animal Husbandry; Wildlife Resources; Peri-Urban Communities; Rural Urban Linkages; Dairies&Dairying;

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References

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  1. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "An analysis of livestock choice : adapting to climate change in Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4164, The World Bank.
  2. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
  3. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), March.
  4. Singh, Inderjit & Squire, Lyn & Strauss, John, 1986. "A Survey of Agricultural Household Models: Recent Findings and Policy Implications," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 1(1), pages 149-79, September.
  5. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  6. Nin, Alejandro & Ehui, Simeon & Benin, Samuel, 2007. "Livestock Productivity in Developing Countries: An Assessment," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
  7. Marcel Fafchamps & Chris Udry & Katherine Czukas, . "Drought and Saving in West Africa: Are Livestock a Buffer Stock?," Working Papers 97013, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  8. S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, 03.
  9. Henk A. J. Moll, 2005. "Costs and benefits of livestock systems and the role of market and nonmarket relationships," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(2), pages 181-193, 03.
  10. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "Endogenous irrigation : the impact of climate change on farmers in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4278, The World Bank.
  11. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Sanghi, Apurva, 2001. "The effect of development on the climate sensitivity of agriculture," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 85-101, February.
  12. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D. & Mitchell, Glenn T., 2005. "Adjustment costs from environmental change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 468-495, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2009. "Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 1915-1924, May.

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