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Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

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Author Info
Pradeep Kurukulasuriya
Robert Mendelsohn
Rashid Hassan
James Benhin
Temesgen Deressa
Mbaye Diop
Helmy Mohamed Eid
K. Yerfi Fosu
Glwadys Gbetibouo
Suman Jain
Ali Mahamadou
Renneth Mano
Jane Kabubo-Mariara
Samia El-Marsafawy
Ernest Molua
Samiha Ouda
Mathieu Ouedraogo
Isidor Séne
David Maddison
S. Niggol Seo
Ariel Dinar

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of - 1.9) and livestock ( - 5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 367-388
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:20:y:2006:i:3:p:367-388

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Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
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Web page: http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/

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  1. Munang Tingem & Mike Rivington, 2009. "Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: Turning on the heat," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 153-168, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. S. Seo & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 313-332, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "How will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4717, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun, 2008. "How China's farmers adapt to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4758, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Hassan, Rashid, 2008. "Long-term adaptation : selecting farm types across agro-ecological zones in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4602, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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