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Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

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Author Info

  • Pradeep Kurukulasuriya
  • Robert Mendelsohn
  • Rashid Hassan
  • James Benhin
  • Temesgen Deressa
  • Mbaye Diop
  • Helmy Mohamed Eid
  • K. Yerfi Fosu
  • Glwadys Gbetibouo
  • Suman Jain
  • Ali Mahamadou
  • Renneth Mano
  • Jane Kabubo-Mariara
  • Samia El-Marsafawy
  • Ernest Molua
  • Samiha Ouda
  • Mathieu Ouedraogo
  • Isidor Séne
  • David Maddison
  • S. Niggol Seo
  • Ariel Dinar

Abstract

Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of - 1.9) and livestock ( - 5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Bank Group in its journal The World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 367-388

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Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:20:y:2006:i:3:p:367-388

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Citations

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > Impacts of climate change
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Cited by:
  1. Munang Tingem & Mike Rivington, 2009. "Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: Turning on the heat," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 153-168, February.
  2. Fleischer, Aliza & Lichtman, Ivgenia & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture: Will warming be harmful?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 508-515, April.
  3. Ernest Molua, 2009. "Accommodation of climate change in coastal areas of cameroon: selection of household-level protection options," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(8), pages 721-735, December.
  4. Jonathan Kaminski & Iddo Kan & Aliza Fleischer, 2013. "A Structural Land-Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(1), pages 70-93.
  5. S. Seo & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 313-332, July.
  6. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "How will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4717, The World Bank.
  7. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun, 2008. "How China's farmers adapt to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4758, The World Bank.
  8. Ahmed, Mirza Nomman & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2011. "Using the Ricardian Technique to estimate the impacts of climate change on Crop Farming in Pakistan," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114217, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  9. Muamba, Francis & Kraybill, David S., 2010. "Weather Vulnerability, Climate Change, and Food Security in Mt. Kilimanjaro," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61655, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  10. Beilei Cai & Trudy Cameron & Geoffrey Gerdes, 2010. "Distributional Preferences and the Incidence of Costs and Benefits in Climate Change Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 46(4), pages 429-458, August.
  11. Thapa, Sridhar & Joshi, Ganesh Raj, 2010. "A Ricardian analysis of the climate change impact on Nepalese agriculture," MPRA Paper 29785, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2011.
  12. Seo, S. Niggol, 2010. "Is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change? A micro-econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in African agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 32-40, February.
  13. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
  14. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Hassan, Rashid, 2008. "Long-term adaptation : selecting farm types across agro-ecological zones in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4602, The World Bank.
  15. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.

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